The Prediction Markets

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

Closes
Jan 20, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

No other person 41%

Next is Adam Telle at 37%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No other person
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
No other person
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Telle
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Telle
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Driscoll
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Driscoll
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Parnell
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Parnell
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Marc Andersen
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Andersen
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
W. Jordan Gillis
10.2%
Polymarket 10.2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 17.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $568 (5.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
W. Jordan Gillis
Last price
10.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.6¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$568 (5.68x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket
Joni Ernst
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joni Ernst
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ron DeSantis
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Feinberg
8.8%
Kalshi 8.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Feinberg
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brian Mast
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Mast
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 15 more outcomes
Michael Obadal
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Obadal
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$587
Trade this on Polymarket
Brent Ingraham
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brent Ingraham
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Elbridge Colby
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elbridge Colby
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Charles Young III
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Young III
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Cotton
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Hagerty
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Hagerty
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Miller
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Miller
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Gallagher
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Gallagher
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Trae Stephens
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trae Stephens
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Waltz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wesley Hunt
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wesley Hunt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Pompeo
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Pompeo
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tulsi Gabbard
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$861
Trade this on Kalshi
Keith Kellogg
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keith Kellogg
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Rogers
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Rogers
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$435
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No other person
  • Adam Telle
  • Dan Driscoll

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list No other person for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?". No other person leads at 41%. Next is Adam Telle at 37%. $46K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets