The Prediction Markets

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?

Closes
Jan 20, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

No other person 55%

Next is Adam Telle at 36.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No other person
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
No other person
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Telle
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Telle
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sean Parnell
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Parnell
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Ric Grenell
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ric Grenell
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$997
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert O'Brien
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert O'Brien
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Kalshi
Marc Andersen
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Andersen
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
W. Jordan Gillis
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
W. Jordan Gillis
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Obadal
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Obadal
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$587
Trade this on Polymarket
Brian Mast
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Mast
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Brent Ingraham
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brent Ingraham
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
Charles Young III
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Young III
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Bill Hagerty
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Hagerty
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$525
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Waltz
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$743
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No other person
  • Adam Telle
  • Sean Parnell

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list No other person for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?". No other person leads at 55%. Next is Adam Telle at 36.5%. $10K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets