The Prediction Markets

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$760K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Justin Gaethje 94.1%

Next is Arman Tsarukyan at 4.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Justin Gaethje 94.1%Arman Tsarukyan 4.9%Ilia Topuria 0.4%Benoît Saint Denis 0.1%Charles Oliveira 0.1%4 others 0.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Justin Gaethje
94.1%
Polymarket 95.2%(94.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Gaethje
Last price
95.2%
Fair, margin removed
94.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.5¢
Sell Yes
94.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arman Tsarukyan
4.9%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arman Tsarukyan
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ilia Topuria
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ilia Topuria
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Benoît Saint Denis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benoît Saint Denis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Oliveira
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Oliveira
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Hooker
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dan Hooker
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mateusz Gamrot
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mateusz Gamrot
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Max Holloway
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Max Holloway
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paddy Pimblett
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paddy Pimblett
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$532K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mauricio Ruffy
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mauricio Ruffy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rafael Fiziev
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rafael Fiziev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Renato Moicano
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renato Moicano
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Justin Gaethje
  • Arman Tsarukyan
  • Ilia Topuria

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?". Justin Gaethje leads at 94.1%. Next is Arman Tsarukyan at 4.9%. $760K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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