The Prediction Markets

Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$984K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Sean Strickland 93.2%

Next is Nassourdine Imavov at 4.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Sean Strickland 93.2%Nassourdine Imavov 4.7%Khamzat Chimaev 1.6%Anthony Hernandez 0.1%Brendan Allen 0.1%3 others 0.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Sean Strickland
93.2%
Polymarket 92.4%(93.2% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 93.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Strickland
Last price
92.4%
Fair, margin removed
93.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.6¢
Sell Yes
91.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nassourdine Imavov
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nassourdine Imavov
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Khamzat Chimaev
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khamzat Chimaev
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$92K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthony Hernandez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Hernandez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brendan Allen
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brendan Allen
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$168K
Trade this on Polymarket
Caio Borralho
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caio Borralho
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$168K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dricus Du Plessis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dricus Du Plessis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe Pyfer
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Pyfer
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel Adesanya
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Adesanya
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$134K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jared Cannonier
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Cannonier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Polymarket
Reinier de Ridder
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reinier de Ridder
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Whittaker
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Whittaker
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sean Strickland
  • Nassourdine Imavov
  • Khamzat Chimaev

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?". Sean Strickland leads at 93.2%. Next is Nassourdine Imavov at 4.7%. $984K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Middleweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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