The Prediction Markets

Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$692K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Islam Makhachev 92.5%

Next is Alex Pereira at 0.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Islam Makhachev 92.5%Alex Pereira 0.9%Ilia Topuria 0.9%Petr Yan 0.9%Magomed Ankalaev 0.8%10 others 4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Islam Makhachev
92.5%
Polymarket 94.5%(92.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Islam Makhachev
Last price
94.5%
Fair, margin removed
92.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Pereira
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Pereira
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ilia Topuria
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ilia Topuria
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$142K
Trade this on Polymarket
Petr Yan
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Petr Yan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Magomed Ankalaev
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomed Ankalaev
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$119K
Trade this on Polymarket
Max Holloway
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Max Holloway
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Volkanovski
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Volkanovski
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$135K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexandre Pantoja
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandre Pantoja
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$144K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joshua Van
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joshua Van
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Khamzat Chimaev
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khamzat Chimaev
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$135K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Merab Dvalishvili
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merab Dvalishvili
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dricus Du Plessis
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dricus Du Plessis
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Aspinall
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Aspinall
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jack Della Maddalena
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jack Della Maddalena
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arman Tsarukyan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arman Tsarukyan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Islam Makhachev
  • Alex Pereira
  • Ilia Topuria

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?". Islam Makhachev leads at 92.5%. Next is Alex Pereira at 0.9%. $692K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the fighter that is ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If, for any reason, there is no fighter ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at this market’s check-time, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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