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What the markets expect
Merab Dvalishvili 42%
Next is Sean O'Malley at 16.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Merab Dvalishvili42%42%30¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 24s ago54¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $185 (1.85x)Merab Dvalishvili42%Polymarket 42%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Merab Dvalishvili
42%
42%
30¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
54¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Merab Dvalishvili
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $2K
Sean O'Malley16.7%16.7%1¢ bid, 32.4¢ askpolled, 24s ago32.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $309 (3.09x)Sean O'Malley16.7%Polymarket 16.7%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 32.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $309 (3.09x)
Sean O'Malley
16.7%
16.7%
1¢ bid, 32.4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
32.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $309 (3.09x)
Sean O'Malley
16.7%
Polymarket 16.7%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 32.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $309 (3.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sean O'Malley
- Last price
- 16.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $309 (3.09x)
- Volume
- $1K
Sergei Pavlovich10.5%10.5%1.1¢ bid, 19.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago19.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $503 (5.03x)Sergei Pavlovich10.5%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Sergei Pavlovich
10.5%
10.5%
1.1¢ bid, 19.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
19.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Sergei Pavlovich
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sergei Pavlovich
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $503 (5.03x)
- Volume
- $220
Nassourdine Imavov8%8%7¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 24s ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Nassourdine Imavov8%Polymarket 8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Nassourdine Imavov
8%
8%
7¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Nassourdine Imavov
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $2K
Manel Kape5.5%5.5%4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 24s ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Manel Kape5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Manel Kape
5.5%
5.5%
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Manel Kape
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Manel Kape
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $46K
Magomed Ankalaev4.9%4.9%2.9¢ bid, 6.8¢ askpolled, 24s ago6.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)Magomed Ankalaev4.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Magomed Ankalaev
4.9%
4.9%
2.9¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
6.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Magomed Ankalaev
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,471 (14.7x)
- Volume
- $1K
Alexander Volkov4%4%1¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 24s ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Alexander Volkov4%Polymarket 4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alexander Volkov
4%
4%
1¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alexander Volkov
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alexander Volkov
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $673
Charles Oliveira4%4%1¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago6.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Charles Oliveira4%Polymarket 4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Charles Oliveira
4%
4%
1¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
6.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Charles Oliveira
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Charles Oliveira
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $134
Max Holloway3.8%3.8%0.7¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago6.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Max Holloway3.8%Polymarket 3.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Max Holloway
3.8%
3.8%
0.7¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
6.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Max Holloway
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Max Holloway
- Last price
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $122
Dricus Du Plessis3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 5.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago5.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)Dricus Du Plessis3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Dricus Du Plessis
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
5.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Dricus Du Plessis
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dricus Du Plessis
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $129
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Shavkat Rakhmonov3.2%3.2%0.5¢ bid, 5.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago5.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)Shavkat Rakhmonov3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Shavkat Rakhmonov
3.2%
3.2%
0.5¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
5.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Shavkat Rakhmonov
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $73
Arman Tsarukyan3%3%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 24s ago5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Arman Tsarukyan3%Polymarket 3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Arman Tsarukyan
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Arman Tsarukyan
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Arman Tsarukyan
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Yair Rodriguez3%3%1.1¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Yair Rodriguez3%Polymarket 3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Yair Rodriguez
3%
3%
1.1¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Yair Rodriguez
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yair Rodriguez
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $47
Belal Muhammad2.8%2.8%0.7¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Belal Muhammad2.8%Polymarket 2.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Belal Muhammad
2.8%
2.8%
0.7¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Belal Muhammad
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Belal Muhammad
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $486
Diego Lopes2.1%2.1%0.7¢ bid, 3.5¢ askpolled, 24s ago3.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)Diego Lopes2.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Diego Lopes
2.1%
2.1%
0.7¢ bid, 3.5¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
3.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Diego Lopes
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Diego Lopes
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,857 (28.6x)
- Volume
- $6K
Aljamain Sterling2%2%1.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago2.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)Aljamain Sterling2%Polymarket 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Aljamain Sterling
2%
2%
1.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Aljamain Sterling
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Aljamain Sterling
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $237
Paddy Pimblett1.9%1.9%1.3¢ bid, 2.4¢ askpolled, 24s ago2.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)Paddy Pimblett1.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Paddy Pimblett
1.9%
1.9%
1.3¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Paddy Pimblett
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paddy Pimblett
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,167 (41.7x)
- Volume
- $4K
Ian Machado Garry1.5%1.5%1.3¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 24s ago1.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)Ian Machado Garry1.5%Polymarket 1.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Ian Machado Garry
1.5%
1.5%
1.3¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Ian Machado Garry
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ian Machado Garry
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $3K
Jiří Procházka1.4%1.4%0.4¢ bid, 2.4¢ askpolled, 24s ago2.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)Jiří Procházka1.4%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Jiří Procházka
1.4%
1.4%
0.4¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Jiří Procházka
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jiří Procházka
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,167 (41.7x)
- Volume
- $4K
Leon Edwards1.4%1.4%0.8¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Leon Edwards1.4%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Leon Edwards
1.4%
1.4%
0.8¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Leon Edwards
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Leon Edwards
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $42K
Umar Nurmagomedov1.3%1.3%0.6¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago1.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)Umar Nurmagomedov1.3%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Umar Nurmagomedov
1.3%
1.3%
0.6¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Umar Nurmagomedov
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Umar Nurmagomedov
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kamaru Usman1.2%1.2%0.4¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 24s ago1.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)Kamaru Usman1.2%Polymarket 1.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kamaru Usman
1.2%
1.2%
0.4¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kamaru Usman
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kamaru Usman
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $7K
Alexandre Pantoja1.1%1.1%0.6¢ bid, 1.6¢ askpolled, 24s ago1.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)Alexandre Pantoja1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Alexandre Pantoja
1.1%
1.1%
0.6¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Alexandre Pantoja
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alexandre Pantoja
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,250 (62.5x)
- Volume
- $24K
Cory Sandhagen1.1%1.1%0.7¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 24s ago1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)Cory Sandhagen1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Cory Sandhagen
1.1%
1.1%
0.7¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Cory Sandhagen
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cory Sandhagen
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $335
Jack Della Maddalena1.1%1.1%0.8¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 24s ago1.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)Jack Della Maddalena1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Jack Della Maddalena
1.1%
1.1%
0.8¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Jack Della Maddalena
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $50K
Deiveson Figueiredo0.8%0.8%0.4¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Deiveson Figueiredo0.8%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Deiveson Figueiredo
0.8%
0.8%
0.4¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Deiveson Figueiredo
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Sean O'Malley
- Sergei Pavlovich
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?". Merab Dvalishvili leads at 42%. Next is Sean O'Malley at 16.7%. $325K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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