The Prediction Markets

Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?

Closes
Apr 30, 2030, in 43 months
Traded
$34K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Narendra Modi 41.2%

Next is Rahul Gandhi at 30.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Narendra Modi 41.2%Rahul Gandhi 30.7%Yogi Adityanath 17.5%Akhilesh Yadav 1.8%Amit Shah 1.8%4 others 7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Narendra Modi
41.2%
Kalshi 47%(41.2% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Narendra Modi
Last price
47%
Fair, margin removed
41.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rahul Gandhi
30.7%
Kalshi 35%(30.7% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rahul Gandhi
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
30.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yogi Adityanath
17.5%
Kalshi 20%(17.5% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yogi Adityanath
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Akhilesh Yadav
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Akhilesh Yadav
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amit Shah
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amit Shah
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Devendra Fadnavis
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Devendra Fadnavis
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
N. Chandrababu Naidu
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
N. Chandrababu Naidu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nitin Gadkari
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nitin Gadkari
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Lok Sabha

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Narendra Modi
  • Rahul Gandhi
  • Yogi Adityanath

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?". Narendra Modi leads at 41.2%. Next is Rahul Gandhi at 30.7%. $34K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 30, 2030.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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