The Prediction Markets

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

Closes
Dec 22, 2028, in 26 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Giorgia Meloni 31.2%

Next is Elly Schlein at 25%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Giorgia Meloni 31.2%Elly Schlein 25%Giuseppe Conte 16.1%Roberto Vannacci 8%Roberto Gualtieri 3.5%6 others 16.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Giorgia Meloni
31.2%
Kalshi 35%(31.2% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giorgia Meloni
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
31.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elly Schlein
25%
Kalshi 28%(25% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elly Schlein
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
25%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$995
Trade this on Kalshi
Giuseppe Conte
16.1%
Kalshi 18%(16.1% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giuseppe Conte
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
16.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Roberto Vannacci
8%
Kalshi 9%(8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roberto Vannacci
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Roberto Gualtieri
3.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roberto Gualtieri
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Antonio Decaro
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antonio Decaro
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
Antonio Tajani
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antonio Tajani
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi
Ernesto Maria Ruffini
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ernesto Maria Ruffini
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$689
Trade this on Kalshi
Gaetano Manfredi
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gaetano Manfredi
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Kalshi
Paolo Gentiloni
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paolo Gentiloni
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Kalshi
Silvia Salis
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Silvia Salis
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$891
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Italian Parliament, President of the Italian Republic

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Giorgia Meloni
  • Elly Schlein
  • Giuseppe Conte

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?". Giorgia Meloni leads at 31.2%. Next is Elly Schlein at 25%. $11K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 22, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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