The Prediction Markets

Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Geralt of Rivia 84%

Next is Vilgefortz at 77%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Geralt of Rivia
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Geralt of Rivia
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vilgefortz
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vilgefortz
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Regis
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Regis
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Polymarket
Yennefer of Vengerberg
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yennefer of Vengerberg
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cahir
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cahir
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Jaskier
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaskier
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
Emhyr
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emhyr
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$553
Trade this on Polymarket
Princess Cirilla
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Princess Cirilla
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
Milva
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Milva
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Geralt of Rivia
  • Vilgefortz
  • Regis

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?". Geralt of Rivia leads at 84%. Next is Vilgefortz at 77%. $34K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

Season 5 of The Witcher is expected to air on Netflix in late 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Witcher: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "The Witcher: Season 5" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "The Witcher: Season 5" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "The Witcher: Season 5" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "The Witcher: Season 5" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, books, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "The Witcher: Season 5" is released.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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