The Prediction Markets

Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?

Closes
Mar 1, 2028, in 17 months
Traded
$134K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

J.D. Vance 48.5%

Next is Marco Rubio at 26.3%. The venues differ most on Marco Rubio (Polymarket 30%, Kalshi 25%), a 5.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
J.D. VanceArb
48.5%
Polymarket 51%polled, 54s agoKalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 49¢ and selling on Polymarket at 50¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Marco RubioArb
26.3%
Polymarket 30%polled, 54s agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 28¢ and selling on Polymarket at 29¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Flávio Bolsonaro
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flávio Bolsonaro
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
No one
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
No one
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald J. Trump Jr.
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Himself
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Himself
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald J. Trump Jr.
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$540
Trade this on Polymarket
Eric Trump
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 20 more outcomes
Renan Santos
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renan Santos
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$918
Trade this on Polymarket
Ronaldo Caiado
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ronaldo Caiado
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$988
Trade this on Polymarket
Romeu Zema
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Romeu Zema
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ron DeSantisArb
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Augusto Cury
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Augusto Cury
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$764
Trade this on Polymarket
Lula da Silva
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula da Silva
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Glenn Youngkin
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Polymarket
Ted Cruz
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket
Tucker Carlson
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$565
Trade this on Polymarket
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Polymarket
Brian Kemp
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Polymarket
Byron Donalds
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Polymarket
Greg Abbott
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Polymarket
Tulsi Gabbard
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Massie
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Polymarket
Rand Paul
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivanka Trump
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Polymarket
Marjorie Taylor Greene
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy J.D. Vance on Kalshi at 49¢, sell on Polymarket at 50¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 26, 2026, 2:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Mar 1, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Donald Trump
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 26, 2026, 2:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Mar 1, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • J.D. Vance
  • Marco Rubio
  • Flávio Bolsonaro

Live prices for J.D. Vance

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?". J.D. Vance leads at 48.5%. Next is Marco Rubio at 26.3%. $134K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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