The Prediction Markets

Who will Donald Trump meet before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$325K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bongbong Marcos 82%

Next is Vladimir Putin at 62.6%. The venues differ most on Vladimir Putin (Polymarket 1.3%, Kalshi 83%), a 82-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bongbong Marcos
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bongbong Marcos
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$634
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladimir PutinArb
62.6%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 48s agoKalshi 83%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 80¢ nets 7810 bps before fees.

Mohammed bin SalmanArb
47.8%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 48s agoKalshi 63%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 63¢ nets 6010 bps before fees.

Peter Thiel
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Thiel
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abelardo de la Espriella
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abelardo de la Espriella
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dario Amodei
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dario Amodei
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Altman
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim Jong UnArb
13.8%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 48s agoKalshi 18%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 18¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

Bill Clinton
7.8%
Kalshi 7.8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Clinton
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 18 more outcomes
Lai Ching-te
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lai Ching-te
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pope Leo XIV
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jerome Powell
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie Taylor Greene
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Walz
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reza Pahlavi
5.2%
Kalshi 5.2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reza Pahlavi
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Carney
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Benjamin Netanyahu
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joseph Aoun
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joseph Aoun
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Polymarket
Miguel Díaz-Canel
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$988
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Burnham
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Burnham
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Polymarket
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Giorgia Meloni
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giorgia Meloni
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Keir Starmer
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keir Starmer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xi Jinping
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Javier Milei
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Milei
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Vladimir Putin on Polymarket at 1.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 80¢ (7810 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC News, Associated Press, Bloomberg
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bongbong Marcos
  • Vladimir Putin
  • Mohammed bin Salman

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bongbong Marcos for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Donald Trump meet before 2027?". Bongbong Marcos leads at 82%. Next is Vladimir Putin at 62.6%. $325K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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