The Prediction Markets

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Closed
Jun 30, 2026
Traded
$422K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Any U.S. Senator
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Any U.S. Senator
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
Any U.S. House member
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Any U.S. House member
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Polymarket
JD Vance
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
JD Vance
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Rubio
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jared Kushner
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Kushner
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Polymarket
Benjamin Netanyahu
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Any U.S. Senator
  • Any U.S. House member
  • JD Vance

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will enter Iran by June 30?". Any U.S. Senator last traded at 1.7%. Next is Any U.S. House member at 1.5%. $422K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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