The Prediction Markets

Who will go on Jimmy Fallon?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Timothée Chalamet 43%

Next is Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson at 38%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Timothée Chalamet
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ariana Grande
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ariana Grande
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jennifer Lawrence
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jennifer Lawrence
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Kalshi
Bad Bunny
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kim Kardashian
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$429
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Swift
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harry Styles
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Styles
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Scarlett Johansson
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Kalshi
Billie Eilish
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 17 more outcomes
Margot Robbie
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Margot Robbie
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Post Malone
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Post Malone
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Leonardo DiCaprio
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leonardo DiCaprio
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Curry
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Curry
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Kalshi
Kylie Jenner
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kylie Jenner
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Lionel Messi
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Kalshi
Beyoncé
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Kendrick Lamar
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Quentin Tarantino
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quentin Tarantino
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Simone Biles
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simone Biles
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Drake
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Travis Kelce
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Travis Kelce
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Kalshi
Charli D’Amelio
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charli D’Amelio
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Logan Paul
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Logan Paul
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Rihanna
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rihanna
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin Scorsese
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martin Scorsese
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
LeBron James
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube, The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Timothée Chalamet
  • Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
  • Ariana Grande

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will go on Jimmy Fallon?". Timothée Chalamet leads at 43%. Next is Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson at 38%. $23K has traded across 27 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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