The Prediction Markets

Who will go on Joe Rogan this year?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$66K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Hunter Biden 30%

Next is Sam Altman at 25%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Hunter Biden
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hunter Biden
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Altman
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vivek Ramaswamy
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bernie Sanders
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tulsi Gabbard
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Ackman
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Ackman
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Jones
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Jones
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Clavicular
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clavicular
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Trump
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran Mamdani
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Michael Saylor
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Saylor
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$379
Trade this on Kalshi
David Sacks
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Sacks
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kanye West
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kanye West
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Obama
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Kalshi
Drake
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeff Bezos
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeff Bezos
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$752
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Swift
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Kalshi
James Fishback
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Fishback
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Biden
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Biden
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Hillary Clinton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hunter Biden
  • Sam Altman
  • Vivek Ramaswamy

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will go on Joe Rogan this year?". Hunter Biden leads at 30%. Next is Sam Altman at 25%. $66K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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