The Prediction Markets

Who will go on Tiny Desk this year?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ella Langley 56%

Next is Lauryn Hill at 50%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Ella Langley
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ella Langley
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Lauryn Hill
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lauryn Hill
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lil Yachty
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lil Yachty
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Dean
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Dean
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Patti Smith
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Patti Smith
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
35¢
Volume
$681
Trade this on Kalshi
SZA
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
SZA
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Kalshi
Elton John
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elton John
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Frank Ocean
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frank Ocean
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
André 3000
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
André 3000
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
J. Cole
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
J. Cole
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$857
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 17 more outcomes
Paul McCartney
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul McCartney
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Rodrigo
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chappell Roan
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Kalshi
Billie Eilish
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
John Mayer
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Mayer
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Doja Cat
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doja Cat
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Kendrick Lamar
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
Rihanna
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rihanna
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Swift
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Kalshi
Travis Scott
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Sabrina Carpenter
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$813
Trade this on Kalshi
Bad Bunny
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruce Springsteen
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruce Springsteen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Kalshi
Drake
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi
Ice Spice
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ice Spice
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Playboi Carti
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Playboi Carti
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyler, The Creator
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler, The Creator
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: NPR, NPR YouTube

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ella Langley
  • Lauryn Hill
  • Lil Yachty

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will go on Tiny Desk this year?". Ella Langley leads at 56%. Next is Lauryn Hill at 50%. $13K has traded across 27 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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