The Prediction Markets

Who will have a #1 hit this year?

Closes
Dec 21, 2026, in 59 days
Traded
$476K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Mariah Carey 93.3%

Next is Tate McRae at 60%. The venues differ most on Doja Cat (Polymarket 45.8%, Kalshi 2%), a 44-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 137 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Mariah Carey
93.3%
Polymarket 96.5%live, just nowKalshi 90%live, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariah Carey
Price
96.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
94.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mariah Carey
Price
90%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 94.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 95¢.

Tate McRae
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tate McRae
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Doja Cat
34.9%
Polymarket 45.8%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doja Cat
Last price
45.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88.4¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$113 (1.13x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doja Cat
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Morgan WallenArb
27.1%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, just nowKalshi 28%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 25¢ and selling on Kalshi at 28¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Beyoncé
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
SZA
23%
Polymarket 32%polled, just nowKalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
SZA
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
SZA
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 27¢.

Post Malone
22.6%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, just nowKalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Post Malone
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Post Malone
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

Kendrick LamarArb
20%
Polymarket 22%polled, just nowKalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 17¢ and selling on Polymarket at 21¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Travis ScottArb
18.5%
Polymarket 21%polled, just nowKalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 20¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

A$AP Rocky
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 25.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $386 (3.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
A$AP Rocky
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25.9¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$386 (3.86x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 109 more outcomes
Sabrina Carpenter
16.8%
Polymarket 14%polled, just nowKalshi 19%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Chappell Roan
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack Harlow
13.7%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 17.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jack Harlow
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.4¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$575 (5.75x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zach Bryan
11%
Polymarket 11.1%polled, just nowKalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zach Bryan
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zach Bryan
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Justin Bieber
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Bieber
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lana Del Rey
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lana Del Rey
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The WeekndArb
10.3%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, just nowKalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Tame Impala
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tame Impala
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$676
Trade this on Kalshi
Playboi Carti
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Playboi Carti
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lady Gaga
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lady Gaga
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicki Minaj
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Future
8.8%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, just nowKalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Future
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$459 (4.59x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Future
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Young Thug
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Young Thug
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frank Ocean
7.8%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, just nowKalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Frank Ocean
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Frank Ocean
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.5¢.

RihannaArb
7.6%
Polymarket 11.3%polled, just nowKalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rihanna
Last price
11.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
10.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rihanna
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10.7¢ nets 570 bps before fees.

Tyler, The Creator
7.5%
Polymarket 9%polled, just nowKalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler, The Creator
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler, The Creator
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Lil Baby
7.3%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, just nowKalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lil Baby
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lil Baby
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

21 Savage
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
21 Savage
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
Don Toliver
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Don Toliver
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
KAROL G
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
KAROL G
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
SIENNA SPIRO
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
SIENNA SPIRO
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Luke Combs
6.8%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowKalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luke Combs
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luke Combs
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Peso Pluma
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peso Pluma
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Warren
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Warren
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dua Lipa
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dua Lipa
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kanye West / Ye
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kanye West / Ye
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lil Wayne
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lil Wayne
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
mgk
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
mgk
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Dean
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Dean
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
PARTYNEXTDOOR
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
PARTYNEXTDOOR
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
PinkPantheress
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
PinkPantheress
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
sombr
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
sombr
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$741
Trade this on Kalshi
Billie EilishArb
4.7%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowKalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 670 bps before fees.

Charlie Puth
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charlie Puth
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Doechii
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doechii
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Mayer
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Mayer
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
Megan Thee Stallion
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Megan Thee Stallion
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaboozey
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaboozey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ed Sheeran
3.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ed Sheeran
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ed Sheeran
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.7¢.

Kanye West
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kanye West
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$866
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Brown
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Brown
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
J Balvin
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
J Balvin
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$613
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin Timberlake
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Timberlake
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
KATSEYE
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
KATSEYE
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lil Uzi Vert
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lil Uzi Vert
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pharrell Williams
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pharrell Williams
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Selena Gomez
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Selena Gomez
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
USHER
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
USHER
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Zara Larsson
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zara Larsson
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Addison Rae
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Addison Rae
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Benson Boone
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benson Boone
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
BLACKPINK
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
BLACKPINK
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Calvin Harris
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Calvin Harris
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$807
Trade this on Kalshi
Coldplay
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coldplay
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Kalshi
Daft Punk
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daft Punk
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Caesar
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Caesar
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
David Guetta
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Guetta
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Eminem
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eminem
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Kalshi
Fred again..
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fred again..
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
Gracie Abrams
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gracie Abrams
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ice Spice
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ice Spice
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Derulo
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Derulo
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$91
Trade this on Kalshi
Joji
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joji
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Khalid
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Khalid
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$825
Trade this on Kalshi
Leon Thomas
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leon Thomas
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$740
Trade this on Kalshi
Lola Young
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lola Young
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Shawn Mendes
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shawn Mendes
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stray Kids
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stray Kids
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Kid LAROI
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Kid LAROI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyla
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyla
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
2 Chainz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
2 Chainz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Kalshi
Anuel AA
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anuel AA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi
Bebe Rexha
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bebe Rexha
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Big Sean
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Big Sean
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Bryson Tiller
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bryson Tiller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Camilo
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Camilo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Charli xcx
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charli xcx
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Childish Gambino
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Childish Gambino
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Kalshi
Clairo
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clairo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$677
Trade this on Kalshi
EsDeeKid
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
EsDeeKid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$451
Trade this on Kalshi
Fall Out Boy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fall Out Boy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Kalshi
Geese
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Geese
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Grimes
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grimes
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$308
Trade this on Kalshi
J. Cole
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
J. Cole
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kali Uchis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kali Uchis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Kalshi
Kid Cudi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kid Cudi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Kodak Black
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kodak Black
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Lewis Capaldi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lewis Capaldi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Kalshi
Lil Nas X
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lil Nas X
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Lil Yachty
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lil Yachty
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
Linkin Park
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Linkin Park
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Kalshi
Logic
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Logic
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Maroon 5
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maroon 5
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Migos
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Migos
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
NF
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
NF
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
Offset
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Offset
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$88
Trade this on Kalshi
Ozuna
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ozuna
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Polo G
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Polo G
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Quavo
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quavo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Rauw Alejandro
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rauw Alejandro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Roddy Ricch
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roddy Ricch
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
ROSALÍA
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
ROSALÍA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Smith
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Smith
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$619
Trade this on Kalshi
Sia
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Swae Lee
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Swae Lee
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Marías
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Marías
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
Trippie Redd
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trippie Redd
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyga
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyga
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
YoungBoy Never Broke Again
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
YoungBoy Never Broke Again
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Billie Eilish on Polymarket at 4.3¢, sell on Kalshi at 11¢ (670 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Windows differ at the edges: Kalshi counts charts up to a named Billboard issue (e.g. week of Dec 26); Polymarket counts charts whose tracking period falls inside the calendar year. Features may count on Kalshi only.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 21, 2026, 5:01 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: billboard.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard
Show full rule comparison
  • Windows differ at the edges: Kalshi counts charts up to a named Billboard issue (e.g. week of Dec 26); Polymarket counts charts whose tracking period falls inside the calendar year. Features may count on Kalshi only.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 21, 2026, 5:01 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mariah Carey
  • Tate McRae
  • Doja Cat

Live prices for Mariah Carey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will have a #1 hit this year?". Mariah Carey leads at 93.3%. Next is Tate McRae at 60%. $476K has traded across 119 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 21, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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