The Prediction Markets

Who will have a #1 song on Spotify Global in May?

Closed
May 16, 2026
Traded
$401K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 16, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 158 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Madonna
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Madonna
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ariana Grande
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ariana Grande
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Rodrigo
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ella Langley
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ella Langley
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Swift
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
PinkPantheress
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
PinkPantheress
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Djo
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Djo
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
BTS
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
BTS
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dominic Fike
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dominic Fike
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Dean
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Dean
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 28 more outcomes
Playboi Carti
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Playboi Carti
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruno Mars
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Noah Kahan
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Kahan
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chappell Roan
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sabrina Carpenter
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
A$AP Rocky
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
A$AP Rocky
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Warren
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Warren
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Baby Keem
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baby Keem
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bella Kay
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bella Kay
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Charli xcx
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charli xcx
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
EsDeeKid
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
EsDeeKid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fleetwood Mac
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fleetwood Mac
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harry Styles
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Styles
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
HUNTR/X
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
HUNTR/X
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
J. Cole
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
J. Cole
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joji
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joji
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
KATSEYE
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
KATSEYE
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lana Del Rey
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lana Del Rey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Luke Combs
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luke Combs
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Megan Moroney
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Megan Moroney
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Morgan Wallen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
RAYE
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
RAYE
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
She & Him
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
She & Him
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
sombr
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
sombr
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Weeknd
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Kalshi
Twenty One Pilots
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Twenty One Pilots
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yeat
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yeat
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zara Larsson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zara Larsson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Madonna
  • Ariana Grande
  • Olivia Rodrigo

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will have a #1 song on Spotify Global in May?". Madonna last traded at 94%. Next is Ariana Grande at 69%. $401K has traded across 38 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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