The Prediction Markets

Who will hold Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Kelly Morrison 24.1%

Next is Angie Craig at 13.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Kelly Morrison 24.1%Angie Craig 13.6%Steve Simon 13.6%No one 12.8%Amy Klobuchar 6.8%11 others 29.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Kelly Morrison
24.1%
Kalshi 32%(24.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly Morrison
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
24.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Angie Craig
13.6%
Kalshi 18%(13.6% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angie Craig
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Simon
13.6%
Kalshi 18%(13.6% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Simon
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
No one
12.8%
Kalshi 17%(12.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
No one
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
12.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Kalshi
Amy Klobuchar
6.8%
Kalshi 9%(6.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Klobuchar
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Walz
4.5%
Kalshi 6%(4.5% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Erin Murphy
3.8%
Kalshi 5%(3.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erin Murphy
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Kalshi
Melisa López Franzen
3.8%
Kalshi 5%(3.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Melisa López Franzen
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Ben Schierer
2.3%
Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Schierer
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Betty McCollum
2.3%
Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Betty McCollum
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Jacob Frey
2.3%
Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Frey
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Keith Ellison
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keith Ellison
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Kalshi
Peggy Flanagan
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peggy Flanagan
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ilhan Omar
1.9%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.9% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ilhan Omar
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jesse Ventura
1.9%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.9% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Ventura
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tina Smith
1.9%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.9% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tina Smith
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Senate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kelly Morrison
  • Angie Craig
  • Steve Simon

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will hold Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?". Kelly Morrison leads at 24.1%. Next is Angie Craig at 13.6%. $7K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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