The Prediction Markets

Who will hold Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Glenn Jacobs 34.5%

Next is Tim Burchett at 17.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Glenn Jacobs 34.5%Tim Burchett 17.3%Damon Hininger 9.5%Chuck Fleischmann 8.6%Marsha Blackburn 7.3%6 others 22.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Glenn Jacobs
34.5%
Kalshi 38%(34.5% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Jacobs
Last price
38%
Fair, margin removed
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Burchett
17.3%
Kalshi 19%(17.3% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Burchett
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
17.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Damon Hininger
9.5%
Kalshi 10.5%(9.5% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Damon Hininger
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chuck Fleischmann
8.6%
Kalshi 9.5%(8.6% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chuck Fleischmann
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marsha Blackburn
7.3%
Kalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marsha Blackburn
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Diana Harshbarger
5%
Kalshi 5.5%(5% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diana Harshbarger
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
No one
5%
Kalshi 5.5%(5% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
No one
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Stuart McWhorter
5%
Kalshi 5.5%(5% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stuart McWhorter
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cameron Sexton
3.2%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cameron Sexton
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Ogles
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Ogles
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Lee
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Lee
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Senate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Glenn Jacobs
  • Tim Burchett
  • Damon Hininger

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will hold Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?". Glenn Jacobs leads at 34.5%. Next is Tim Burchett at 17.3%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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