The Prediction Markets

Who will host the 2028 Copa America?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

USA 91%

Next is United States at 89%. The venues differ most on Ecuador (Polymarket 1.1%, Kalshi 12%), a 11-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
USA
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
USA
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
United States
89%
Polymarket 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brazil
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brazil
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Polymarket
Argentina, Uruguay, or Paraguay
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Argentina, Uruguay, or Paraguay
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Kalshi
EcuadorArb
3.8%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ecuador
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ecuador
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 210 bps before fees.

Venezuela
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Venezuela
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Argentina
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Argentina
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Polymarket
Uruguay
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Uruguay
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Polymarket
Peru
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peru
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Polymarket
Colombia
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colombia
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$113
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
Bolivia
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolivia
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Polymarket
Paraguay
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paraguay
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
Mexico
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mexico
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
Chile
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chile
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Ecuador on Polymarket at 1.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 4¢ (210 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jun 1, 2028, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jun 1, 2028, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • USA
  • United States
  • Brazil

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list USA for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will host the 2028 Copa America?". USA leads at 91%. Next is United States at 89%. $5K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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