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What the markets expect
Cleveland 9.3%
Next is Carolina at 6.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Cleveland9.3%13%9.4% fair5¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 43s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Cleveland9.3%Kalshi 13%(9.4% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Cleveland
9.3%
13%
9.4% fair
5¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Cleveland
9.3%
Kalshi 13%(9.4% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cleveland
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $346
Carolina6.5%9%6.5% fair1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 43s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Carolina6.5%Kalshi 9%(6.5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Carolina
6.5%
9%
6.5% fair
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Carolina
6.5%
Kalshi 9%(6.5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carolina
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $153
New Orleans6.5%9%6.5% fair9¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 43s ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)New Orleans6.5%Kalshi 9%(6.5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
New Orleans
6.5%
9%
6.5% fair
9¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
New Orleans
6.5%
Kalshi 9%(6.5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Orleans
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $853
Dallas5.8%8%5.8% fair1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 43s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Dallas5.8%Kalshi 8%(5.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Dallas
5.8%
8%
5.8% fair
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Dallas
5.8%
Kalshi 8%(5.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dallas
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $45
Seattle5.8%8%5.8% fair1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 43s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Seattle5.8%Kalshi 8%(5.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Seattle
5.8%
8%
5.8% fair
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Seattle
5.8%
Kalshi 8%(5.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Seattle
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $277
Jacksonville5%7%5% fair6¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 43s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Jacksonville5%Kalshi 7%(5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Jacksonville
5%
7%
5% fair
6¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Jacksonville
5%
Kalshi 7%(5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jacksonville
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $542
Miami5%7%5% fair— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 43s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Miami5%Kalshi 7%(5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Miami
5%
7%
5% fair
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Miami
5%
Kalshi 7%(5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Miami
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $118
Baltimore4.3%6%4.3% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 43s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Baltimore4.3%Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Baltimore
4.3%
6%
4.3% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Baltimore
4.3%
Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Baltimore
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $5
Buffalo4.3%6%4.3% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 43s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Buffalo4.3%Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Buffalo
4.3%
6%
4.3% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Buffalo
4.3%
Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Buffalo
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $215
Minnesota4.3%6%4.3% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 43s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Minnesota4.3%Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Minnesota
4.3%
6%
4.3% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Minnesota
4.3%
Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $247
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Tampa Bay4.3%6%4.3% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 43s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Tampa Bay4.3%Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Tampa Bay
4.3%
6%
4.3% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Tampa Bay
4.3%
Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tampa Bay
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $153
Washington4.3%6%4.3% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 43s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Washington4.3%Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Washington
4.3%
6%
4.3% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Washington
4.3%
Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Washington
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $58
Cincinnati3.6%5%3.6% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Cincinnati3.6%Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Cincinnati
3.6%
5%
3.6% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Cincinnati
3.6%
Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cincinnati
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $43
Arizona3.2%4.5%3.2% fair1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 43s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Arizona3.2%Kalshi 4.5%(3.2% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Arizona
3.2%
4.5%
3.2% fair
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Arizona
3.2%
Kalshi 4.5%(3.2% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona
- Last price
- 4.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Las Vegas2.9%4%2.9% fair3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 43s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Las Vegas2.9%Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Las Vegas
2.9%
4%
2.9% fair
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Las Vegas
2.9%
Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Las Vegas
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $6
Los Angeles C / Los Angeles R2.9%4%2.9% fair3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 43s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Los Angeles C / Los Angeles R2.9%Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Los Angeles C / Los Angeles R
2.9%
4%
2.9% fair
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Los Angeles C / Los Angeles R
2.9%
Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles C / Los Angeles R
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $6
New England2.9%4%2.9% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)New England2.9%Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
New England
2.9%
4%
2.9% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
New England
2.9%
Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New England
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $155
New York G / New York J2.9%4%2.9% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)New York G / New York J2.9%Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
New York G / New York J
2.9%
4%
2.9% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
New York G / New York J
2.9%
Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York G / New York J
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $109
Pittsburgh2.9%4%2.9% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Pittsburgh2.9%Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Pittsburgh
2.9%
4%
2.9% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Pittsburgh
2.9%
Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pittsburgh
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $12
Atlanta2.5%3.5%2.5% fair— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 43s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Atlanta2.5%Kalshi 3.5%(2.5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Atlanta
2.5%
3.5%
2.5% fair
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Atlanta
2.5%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta
- Last price
- 3.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Houston2.2%3%2.2% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 43s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Houston2.2%Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Houston
2.2%
3%
2.2% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Houston
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Houston
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Denver1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Denver1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Denver
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Denver
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denver
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Detroit1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Detroit1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Detroit
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Detroit
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Detroit
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Indianapolis1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Indianapolis1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Indianapolis
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Indianapolis
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Indianapolis
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Kansas City1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Kansas City1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kansas City
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kansas City
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas City
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
San Francisco1.4%2%1.4% fair2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 43s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)San Francisco1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
San Francisco
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
San Francisco
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- San Francisco
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $45
Who resolves this market
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Cleveland
- Carolina
- New Orleans
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will host the 2031 Pro Football Championship?". Cleveland leads at 9.3%. Next is Carolina at 6.5%. $3K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2031.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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