The Prediction Markets

Who will host the 2038 FIFA World Cup?

Closes
Jan 1, 2034, in 88 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

USA 53%

Next is China at 18%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
USA
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
USA
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
China
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
China
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Australia or New Zealand
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Australia or New Zealand
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
France, Belgium or the Netherlands
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
France, Belgium or the Netherlands
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Kalshi
United Kingdom or Ireland
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
United Kingdom or Ireland
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$343
Trade this on Kalshi
Brazil, Colombia or Peru
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brazil, Colombia or Peru
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
Cambodia
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cambodia
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$635
Trade this on Kalshi
Greece or Turkey
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greece or Turkey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Egypt
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Egypt
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$624
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Panama or Costa Rica
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Panama or Costa Rica
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Kalshi
Germany
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Kalshi
Italy
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Italy
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Switzerland or Austria
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Switzerland or Austria
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • USA
  • China
  • Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will host the 2038 FIFA World Cup?". USA leads at 53%. Next is China at 18%. $22K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2034.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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