The Prediction Markets

Who will Ilia Topuria fight next?

Ends in about 436 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Paddy Pimblett 66.9%

Next is Alexander Volkanovski at 49.5%. The venues differ most on Justin Gaethje (Polymarket 7.5%, Kalshi 25%), a 18-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Paddy PimblettArb
66.9%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 59%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paddy Pimblett
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paddy Pimblett
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 59¢ and selling on Polymarket at 68¢ nets 900 bps before fees.

Alexander Volkanovski
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Volkanovski
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Beneil Dariush
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beneil Dariush
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Benoit Saint Denis
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benoît Saint Denis
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Hooker
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Hooker
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Diego Lopes
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diego Lopes
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Islam Makhachev
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Islam Makhachev
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mateusz Gamrot
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mateusz Gamrot
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mauricio Ruffy
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mauricio Ruffy
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Max Holloway
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Max Holloway
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Movsar Evloev
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Movsar Evloev
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Quillan Salkilld
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quillan Salkilld
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rafael Fiziev
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rafael Fiziev
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Renato Moicano
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Renato Moicano
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Salahdine Parnasse
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salahdine Parnasse
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Nolan
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Nolan
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin Gaethje
11.9%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Gaethje
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Gaethje
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Arman Tsarukyan
9%
Polymarket 6%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arman Tsarukyan
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arman Tsarukyan
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$557
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

Benoit Saint Denis
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benoit Saint Denis
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Oliveira
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Oliveira
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Paddy Pimblett on Kalshi at 59¢, sell on Polymarket at 68¢ (900 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jun 17, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paddy Pimblett
  • Alexander Volkanovski
  • Beneil Dariush

Live prices for Paddy Pimblett

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Ilia Topuria fight next?". Paddy Pimblett leads at 66.9%. Next is Alexander Volkanovski at 49.5%. $13K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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