The Prediction Markets

Who will John Cornyn endorse in the Texas Senate Election?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Nobody 87.5%

Next is Ken Paxton at 9.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Nobody 87.5%Ken Paxton 9.5%James Talarico 3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Nobody
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nobody
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ken Paxton
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$988
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nobody
  • Ken Paxton
  • James Talarico

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will John Cornyn endorse in the Texas Senate Election?". Nobody leads at 87.5%. Next is Ken Paxton at 9.5%. $7K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 Midterm election for the United States Senate is scheduled to occur on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate John Cornyn endorses in that election. An endorsement is defined as a public statement expressing definitive support for a candidate in a race. The statement must be made publicly (including through press releases, interviews, speeches, social media, campaign events, or other public communications) and must clearly identify the candidate and be made in the context of the race. If John Cornyn does not announce an endorsement by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Cornyn and his representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting on Conryn's endorsement may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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