The Prediction Markets

Who will join the Trump administration before July?

Closed
Jun 5, 2026
Traded
$31K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 5, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
John Solomon
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Solomon
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Glenn Youngkin
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marc Rowan
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marc Rowan
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Bannon
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicki Minaj
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Ron DeSantis
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elon Musk
3.9%
Kalshi 3.9%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Eric Adams
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Adams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phil McGraw
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phil McGraw
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$393
Trade this on Kalshi
Rick Rieder
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rick Rieder
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Judy Shelton
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Judy Shelton
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the White House

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • John Solomon
  • Glenn Youngkin
  • Marc Rowan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will join the Trump administration before July?". John Solomon last traded at 34%. Next is Glenn Youngkin at 8.6%. $31K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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