The Prediction Markets

Who will launch a token this year?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$183K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

November 30, 2026 94%

Next is December 31, 2027 at 38.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
November 30, 2026
94%
Polymarket 94%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30, 2026
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2027
38.3%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 55.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
27.9%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 95.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 11.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exponent
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exponent
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31, 2026
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31, 2026
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30, 2027
15.4%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 31.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$544
Trade this on Polymarket
Felix
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Felix
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
September 30, 2027
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
September 30, 2027
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31, 2027
10.2%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$378
Trade this on Polymarket
Arc
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arc
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Ostium
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ostium
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fomo
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fomo
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
MetaMask
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
MetaMask
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Base
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Base
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
CME Group
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
CME Group
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenSea
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenSea
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phantom
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phantom
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabby
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabby
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tempo
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tempo
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Unit
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unit
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abstract
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abstract
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: project, CoinDesk, CoinTelegraph

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 30, 2026
  • December 31, 2027
  • December 31, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list November 30, 2026 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will launch a token this year?". November 30, 2026 leads at 94%. Next is December 31, 2027 at 38.3%. $183K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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