The Prediction Markets

Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$5.8M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Nicolás Maduro 83%

Next is Delcy Rodríguez at 22%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Nicolás Maduro
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Delcy Rodríguez
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delcy Rodríguez
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Edmundo González
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Edmundo González
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$441K
Trade this on Kalshi
María Corina Machado
3.4%
Kalshi 3.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
María Corina Machado
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Jorge Rodríguez
2.4%
Kalshi 2.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jorge Rodríguez
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
Juan Guaidó
2.4%
Kalshi 2.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Guaidó
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dinorah Figuera
1.8%
Kalshi 1.8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dinorah Figuera
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Trump
1.8%
Kalshi 1.8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$370K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Hegseth
1.2%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$132K
Trade this on Kalshi
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Richard Grenell
0.7%
Kalshi 0.7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Kalshi
Contract
Richard Grenell
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Caine
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Caine
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$188K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$362K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miguel Rodríguez Torres
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miguel Rodríguez Torres
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Evan Pettus
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
Evan Pettus
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$183K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frank Donovan
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frank Donovan
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$117K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Miller
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladimir Padrino López
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Padrino López
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: person, official government website, agency

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nicolás Maduro
  • Delcy Rodríguez
  • Edmundo González

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?". Nicolás Maduro leads at 83%. Next is Delcy Rodríguez at 22%. $5.8M has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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