The Prediction Markets

Who will leave California before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Peter Thiel 59%

Next is Larry Page at 33%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Peter Thiel
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Thiel
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Larry Page
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Larry Page
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chamath Palihapitiya
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chamath Palihapitiya
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Palmer Luckey
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Palmer Luckey
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$937
Trade this on Kalshi
Marc Andreessen
7.8%
Kalshi 7.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marc Andreessen
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Zuckerberg
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Zuckerberg
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jensen Huang
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jensen Huang
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official representatives or spokespersons for person, The New York Times, the Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Peter Thiel
  • Larry Page
  • Chamath Palihapitiya

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will leave California before 2027?". Peter Thiel leads at 59%. Next is Larry Page at 33%. $28K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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