The Prediction Markets

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$5.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ric Grenell 68%

Next is None before 2027 at 37.7%. The venues differ most on Doug Collins (Polymarket 0.5%, Kalshi 33%), a 33-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ric Grenell
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ric Grenell
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
None before 2027
37.7%
Polymarket 37.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $261 (2.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
None before 2027
Last price
37.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38.3¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$261 (2.61x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Polymarket
Susie WilesArb
35.4%
Polymarket 24.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 39%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 25.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $394 (3.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
24.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25.4¢
Sell Yes
23.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$394 (3.94x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$306K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 25.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 39¢ nets 1360 bps before fees.

Amy Gleason
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Gleason
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug CollinsArb
24.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 2940 bps before fees.

Bill Pulte
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Pulte
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete HegsethArb
21.1%
Polymarket 9.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 1370 bps before fees.

Steve Witkoff
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Witkoff
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kash Patel
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Homan
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
Linda McMahonArb
15.2%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 1610 bps before fees.

Mike Huckabee
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Huckabee
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Navarro
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Navarro
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rodney Scott
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rodney Scott
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Howard LutnickArb
13.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$423K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 1610 bps before fees.

Brooke RollinsArb
13.6%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 1110 bps before fees.

Russell Vought
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Miller
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$130K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris WrightArb
12.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 1360 bps before fees.

Scott TurnerArb
12.1%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$576
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 1260 bps before fees.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Arb
11.7%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$284K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 630 bps before fees.

Brendan Carr
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brendan Carr
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mehmet Oz
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mehmet Oz
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steven Cheung
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Cheung
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean DuffyArb
9.8%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$974
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 1160 bps before fees.

Doug BurgumArb
9.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 1030 bps before fees.

Jamieson GreerArb
9.2%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

John RatcliffeArb
9.1%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$825
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 1160 bps before fees.

Marco RubioArb
8.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$798
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$179K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9.6¢ nets 860 bps before fees.

Kelly LoefflerArb
7.7%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 880 bps before fees.

Lee ZeldinArb
6.8%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4.6¢ nets 250 bps before fees.

Scott BessentArb
6.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5.1¢ nets 430 bps before fees.

Mike Waltz
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russell Vought
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell T. Vought
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Doug Collins on Polymarket at 0.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 30¢ (2940 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ric Grenell
  • None before 2027
  • Susie Wiles

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ric Grenell for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?". Ric Grenell leads at 68%. Next is None before 2027 at 37.7%. $5.5M has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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