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What the markets expect
Pete Hegseth 32%
Next is Susie Wiles at 16%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Pete Hegseth32%Not listed32%29¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 1 min ago32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Pete Hegseth32%Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Pete Hegseth
32%
Not listed
32%
29¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Pete Hegseth
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pete Hegseth
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $75K
Susie Wiles16%Not listed16%16¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 1 min ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Susie Wiles16%Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Susie Wiles
16%
Not listed
16%
16¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Susie Wiles
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Susie Wiles
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $33K
Alan Campbell14.2%14.2%0.6¢ bid, 27.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed27.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $360 (3.60x)Alan Campbell14.2%Polymarket 14.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $360 (3.60x)
Alan Campbell
14.2%
14.2%
0.6¢ bid, 27.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
27.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $360 (3.60x)
Alan Campbell
14.2%
Polymarket 14.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $360 (3.60x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alan Campbell
- Last price
- 14.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 27.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $360 (3.60x)
- Volume
- $4K
Howard Lutnick14%Not listed14%14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Howard Lutnick14%Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Howard Lutnick
14%
Not listed
14%
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Howard Lutnick
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Howard Lutnick
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $21K
Bridget Phillipson13.6%13.6%0.4¢ bid, 26.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed26.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $373 (3.73x)Bridget Phillipson13.6%Polymarket 13.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $373 (3.73x)
Bridget Phillipson
13.6%
13.6%
0.4¢ bid, 26.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
26.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $373 (3.73x)
Bridget Phillipson
13.6%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $373 (3.73x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bridget Phillipson
- Last price
- 13.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $373 (3.73x)
- Volume
- $4K
Jonathan Reynolds9%9%0.5¢ bid, 17.4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed17.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $575 (5.75x)Jonathan Reynolds9%Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Jonathan Reynolds
9%
9%
0.5¢ bid, 17.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
17.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Jonathan Reynolds
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jonathan Reynolds
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $575 (5.75x)
- Volume
- $4K
Markwayne Mullin8%Not listed8%3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Markwayne Mullin8%Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Markwayne Mullin
8%
Not listed
8%
3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Markwayne Mullin
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Markwayne Mullin
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $26K
John Healey7.5%7.5%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)John Healey7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
John Healey
7.5%
7.5%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
John Healey
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- John Healey
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $25K
Alex Norris6.3%6.3%0.8¢ bid, 11.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed11.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $847 (8.47x)Alex Norris6.3%Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Alex Norris
6.3%
6.3%
0.8¢ bid, 11.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
11.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Alex Norris
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alex Norris
- Last price
- 6.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $847 (8.47x)
- Volume
- $2K
Yvette Cooper5.6%5.6%0.5¢ bid, 10.6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed10.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $943 (9.43x)Yvette Cooper5.6%Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Yvette Cooper
5.6%
5.6%
0.5¢ bid, 10.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
10.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Yvette Cooper
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yvette Cooper
- Last price
- 5.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $943 (9.43x)
- Volume
- $4K
Show 37 more outcomesHide 37 outcomes
Miatta Fahnbulleh5.4%5.4%0.7¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Miatta Fahnbulleh5.4%Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Miatta Fahnbulleh
5.4%
5.4%
0.7¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Miatta Fahnbulleh
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Miatta Fahnbulleh
- Last price
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.5%Not listed5%5¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Robert F. Kennedy Jr.5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Not listed
5%
5¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $32K
Heidi Alexander4.8%4.8%1.3¢ bid, 8.3¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed8.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)Heidi Alexander4.8%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Heidi Alexander
4.8%
4.8%
1.3¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
8.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Heidi Alexander
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Heidi Alexander
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,205 (12.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Lucy Powell4.5%4.5%1.1¢ bid, 7.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)Lucy Powell4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Lucy Powell
4.5%
4.5%
1.1¢ bid, 7.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Lucy Powell
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lucy Powell
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,282 (12.8x)
- Volume
- $7K
Angela Smith4.4%4.4%0.5¢ bid, 8.3¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed8.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)Angela Smith4.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Angela Smith
4.4%
4.4%
0.5¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
8.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Angela Smith
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Angela Smith
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,205 (12.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Stephen Kinnock4.2%4.2%2¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Stephen Kinnock4.2%Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Stephen Kinnock
4.2%
4.2%
2¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Stephen Kinnock
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Stephen Kinnock
- Last price
- 4.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $5K
Angela Rayner4.1%4.1%0.3¢ bid, 7.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)Angela Rayner4.1%Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Angela Rayner
4.1%
4.1%
0.3¢ bid, 7.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Angela Rayner
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Angela Rayner
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,282 (12.8x)
- Volume
- $789
Douglas Alexander4.1%4.1%0.9¢ bid, 7.2¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)Douglas Alexander4.1%Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Douglas Alexander
4.1%
4.1%
0.9¢ bid, 7.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Douglas Alexander
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Douglas Alexander
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,389 (13.9x)
- Volume
- $3K
Lisa Nandy3.9%3.9%0.5¢ bid, 7.3¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)Lisa Nandy3.9%Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Lisa Nandy
3.9%
3.9%
0.5¢ bid, 7.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Lisa Nandy
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lisa Nandy
- Last price
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,370 (13.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
Wes Streeting3.4%3.4%0.8¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Wes Streeting3.4%Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Wes Streeting
3.4%
3.4%
0.8¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Wes Streeting
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wes Streeting
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
Angela Eagle3.3%3.3%1.6¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Angela Eagle3.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Angela Eagle
3.3%
3.3%
1.6¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Angela Eagle
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Angela Eagle
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $6K
Ed Miliband3.2%3.2%0.5¢ bid, 5.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed5.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)Ed Miliband3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Ed Miliband
3.2%
3.2%
0.5¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
5.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Ed Miliband
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ed Miliband
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
Louise Haigh3.2%3.2%0.4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Louise Haigh3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Louise Haigh
3.2%
3.2%
0.4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Louise Haigh
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Louise Haigh
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $1K
Chris Bryant2.6%2.6%0.4¢ bid, 4.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)Chris Bryant2.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Chris Bryant
2.6%
2.6%
0.4¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Chris Bryant
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chris Bryant
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $14K
Shabana Mahmood2.6%2.6%0.7¢ bid, 4.5¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)Shabana Mahmood2.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Shabana Mahmood
2.6%
2.6%
0.7¢ bid, 4.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Shabana Mahmood
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Shabana Mahmood
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,222 (22.2x)
- Volume
- $24K
Pat McFadden2.5%2.5%0.6¢ bid, 4.4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)Pat McFadden2.5%Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Pat McFadden
2.5%
2.5%
0.6¢ bid, 4.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Pat McFadden
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pat McFadden
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,273 (22.7x)
- Volume
- $13K
Brooke Rollins2%Not listed2%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Brooke Rollins2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Brooke Rollins
2%
Not listed
2%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Brooke Rollins
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brooke Rollins
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $8K
Chris Wright2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Chris Wright2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Chris Wright
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Chris Wright
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chris Wright
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $12K
Doug Collins2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Doug Collins2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Doug Collins
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Doug Collins
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Doug Collins
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $8K
Kelly Loeffler2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Kelly Loeffler2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kelly Loeffler
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Scott Bessent2%Not listed2%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Scott Bessent2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Scott Bessent
2%
Not listed
2%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Scott Bessent
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Scott Bessent
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $8K
Anneliese Midgley1.9%1.9%0.3¢ bid, 3.4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed3.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)Anneliese Midgley1.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Anneliese Midgley
1.9%
1.9%
0.3¢ bid, 3.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
3.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Anneliese Midgley
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Anneliese Midgley
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,941 (29.4x)
- Volume
- $3K
Christopher Phelan1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Christopher Phelan1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Christopher Phelan
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Christopher Phelan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Christopher Phelan
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $118
Doug Burgum1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Doug Burgum1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Doug Burgum
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Doug Burgum
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Doug Burgum
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $10K
Jamieson Greer1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jamieson Greer1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jamieson Greer
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jamieson Greer
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jamieson Greer
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Jay Clayton1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jay Clayton1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jay Clayton
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jay Clayton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jay Clayton
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $49
John Ratcliffe1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)John Ratcliffe1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
John Ratcliffe
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
John Ratcliffe
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John Ratcliffe
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Keith Sonderling1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Keith Sonderling1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Keith Sonderling
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Keith Sonderling
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Keith Sonderling
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $49
Lee Zeldin1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Lee Zeldin1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Lee Zeldin
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Lee Zeldin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lee Zeldin
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Linda McMahon1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Linda McMahon1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Linda McMahon
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Linda McMahon
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Linda McMahon
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Marco Rubio1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $10K
Michael Kratsios1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michael Kratsios1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michael Kratsios
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michael Kratsios
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michael Kratsios
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Mike Waltz1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mike Waltz1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Waltz
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Waltz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mike Waltz
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Russell Vought1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Russell Vought1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Russell Vought
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Russell Vought
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Russell Vought
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Scott Turner1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Scott Turner1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Scott Turner
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Scott Turner
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Scott Turner
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Sean Duffy1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Sean Duffy1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Sean Duffy
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Sean Duffy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sean Duffy
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Todd Blanche1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Todd Blanche1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Todd Blanche
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Todd Blanche
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Todd Blanche
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $49
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, The New York Times
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Pete Hegseth
- Susie Wiles
- Alan Campbell
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Pete Hegseth for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?". Pete Hegseth leads at 32%. Next is Susie Wiles at 16%. $421K has traded across 47 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2029.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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