The Prediction Markets

Who will officially lead Venezuela on June 1?

Closed
Jun 1, 2026
Traded
$714K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Nicolás Maduro
81.7%
Kalshi 93.2%(81.8% fair)polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
93.2%
Fair, margin removed
81.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$330K
Trade this on Kalshi
María Corina Machado
3.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
María Corina Machado
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Delcy Rodríguez
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delcy Rodríguez
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$289K
Trade this on Kalshi
Edmundo González
2.1%
Kalshi 2.4%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Edmundo González
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
2%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
2+ people
1.6%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
2+ people
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dinorah Figuera
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dinorah Figuera
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Juan Guaidó
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Guaidó
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miguel Rodríguez Torres
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miguel Rodríguez Torres
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Pete Hegseth
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Miller
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladimir Padrino López
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Padrino López
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Trump
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jorge Rodríguez
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jorge Rodríguez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nicolás Maduro
  • María Corina Machado
  • Delcy Rodríguez

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will officially lead Venezuela on June 1?". Nicolás Maduro last traded at 81.7%. Next is María Corina Machado at 3.5%. $714K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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