The Prediction Markets

Who Will Perform at Harry Styles’ MSG Residency?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 38 days
Traded
$18K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Paul McCartney 30%

Next is Elton John at 24%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Paul McCartney
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul McCartney
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elton John
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elton John
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Louis Tomlinson
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louis Tomlinson
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Jorja Smith
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jorja Smith
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Kalshi
Lorde
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lorde
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phoebe Bridgers
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phoebe Bridgers
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Kalshi
Noah Kahan
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Kahan
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$561
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Rodrigo
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Kalshi
Charli XCX
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charli XCX
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Mick Fleetwood
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mick Fleetwood
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Stevie Nicks
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stevie Nicks
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$927
Trade this on Kalshi
Zayn Malik
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zayn Malik
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bad Bunny
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Kalshi
Niall Horan
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Niall Horan
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Swift
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Kalshi
Billie Eilish
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MSG, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paul McCartney
  • Elton John
  • Louis Tomlinson

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who Will Perform at Harry Styles’ MSG Residency?". Paul McCartney leads at 30%. Next is Elton John at 24%. $18K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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