The Prediction Markets

Who will release a new song this year?

Closes
Jan 8, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$206K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

PARTYNEXTDOOR 96%

Next is Zara Larsson at 96%. The venues differ most on Nicki Minaj (Polymarket 36.4%, Kalshi 75%), a 39-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
PARTYNEXTDOOR
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
PARTYNEXTDOOR
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Kalshi
Zara Larsson
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zara Larsson
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Kalshi
Post Malone
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Post Malone
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Eminem
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eminem
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dua Lipa
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Dua Lipa
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$446
Trade this on Kalshi
Bad Bunny
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Marías
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
The Marías
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$516
Trade this on Kalshi
The Weeknd
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Billie Eilish
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin Bieber
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Bieber
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 17 more outcomes
Clairo
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clairo
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Kalshi
Addison Rae
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Addison Rae
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Geese
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Geese
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
NF
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
NF
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Coldplay
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coldplay
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Dean
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Dean
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fall Out Boy
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fall Out Boy
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shawn Mendes
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shawn Mendes
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Kalshi
Mariah Carey
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Mariah Carey
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicki MinajArb
46.1%
Polymarket 36.4%polled, 42s agoKalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Last price
36.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
11.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 61¢ and selling on Kalshi at 67¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

Kendrick Lamar
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Linkin Park
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Linkin Park
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
JAY-Z
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
JAY-Z
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rihanna
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rihanna
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Migos
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Migos
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frank Ocean
10.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Frank Ocean
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Frank Ocean
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Daft Punk
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daft Punk
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Nicki Minaj on Polymarket at 61¢, sell on Kalshi at 67¢ (600 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Windows differ at the edges: Kalshi counts charts up to a named Billboard issue (e.g. week of Dec 26); Polymarket counts charts whose tracking period falls inside the calendar year. Features may count on Kalshi only.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 2, 2027, 7:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify
Show full rule comparison
  • Windows differ at the edges: Kalshi counts charts up to a named Billboard issue (e.g. week of Dec 26); Polymarket counts charts whose tracking period falls inside the calendar year. Features may count on Kalshi only.
  • Trading closes Jan 2, 2027, 7:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • PARTYNEXTDOOR
  • Zara Larsson
  • Post Malone

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list PARTYNEXTDOOR for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will release a new song this year?". PARTYNEXTDOOR leads at 96%. Next is Zara Larsson at 96%. $206K has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets