The Prediction Markets

Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO?

Closes
Jan 1, 2030, in 39 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Troy Rohrbaugh 51%

Next is Doug Petno at 29%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Troy Rohrbaugh
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Troy Rohrbaugh
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug Petno
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Petno
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jennifer Piepszak
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jennifer Piepszak
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marianne Lake
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marianne Lake
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Troy Rohrbaugh
  • Doug Petno
  • Jennifer Piepszak

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO?". Troy Rohrbaugh leads at 51%. Next is Doug Petno at 29%. $23K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2030.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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