The Prediction Markets

Who will run for Pennsylvania Senate in 2028?

Closes
Feb 16, 2028, in 16 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Conor Lamb 76%

Next is Summer Lee at 71%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Conor Lamb
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conor Lamb
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Summer Lee
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Summer Lee
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Deluzio
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Deluzio
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Rabb
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Rabb
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chrissy Houlahan
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chrissy Houlahan
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Larry Krasner
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Larry Krasner
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Malcolm Kenyatta
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malcolm Kenyatta
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
John Fetterman
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Kalshi
Brendan Boyle
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brendan Boyle
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Susan Wild
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Susan Wild
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Bob Casey Jr.
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bob Casey Jr.
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Conor Lamb
  • Summer Lee
  • Chris Deluzio

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will run for Pennsylvania Senate in 2028?". Conor Lamb leads at 76%. Next is Summer Lee at 71%. $3K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 16, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets