The Prediction Markets

Who will run for president in 2028?

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 25 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Thomas Massie 44.5%

Next is Kanye West at 38%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Thomas Massie
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kanye West
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kanye West
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$908
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tucker Carlson
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Yang
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Yang
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin Amash
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Amash
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie Taylor Greene
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Cuban
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Cuban
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Manchin
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Manchin
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$535
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Stewart
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Matthew McConaughey
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew McConaughey
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Kalshi
Larry Hogan
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Larry Hogan
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DeAndre Way
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeAndre Way
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jesse Ventura
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Ventura
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Rogan
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Rogan
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Aaron Rodgers
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dwayne Johnson
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dwayne Johnson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Howard Schultz
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Schultz
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamie Dimon
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamie Dimon
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Thomas Massie
  • Kanye West
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will run for president in 2028?". Thomas Massie leads at 44.5%. Next is Kanye West at 38%. $14K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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