The Prediction Markets

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$1.0M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Pete Buttigieg 90.1%

Next is Andy Beshear at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Pete Buttigieg
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 91.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.9¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Beshear
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rahm Emanuel
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
J.B. Pritzker
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ro Khanna
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wes Moore
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Shapiro
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Kelly
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cory Booker
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 28 more outcomes
Mitch Landrieu
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitch Landrieu
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Murphy
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Murphy
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$160K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Van Hollen
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Van Hollen
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elissa Slotkin
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elissa Slotkin
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raphael Warnock
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ruben Gallego
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Polis
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Polis
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phil Murphy
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Murphy
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shawn Fain
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shawn Fain
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Gretchen Whitmer
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dean Phillips
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean Phillips
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen A. Smith
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mikie Sherrill
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mikie Sherrill
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abigail Spanberger
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abigail Spanberger
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Fetterman
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hunter Biden
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hunter Biden
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Cuban
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Cuban
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amy Klobuchar
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Klobuchar
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$870
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Stewart
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michelle Obama
6.4%
Kalshi 6.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Obama
4.7%
Kalshi 4.7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Walz
4.3%
Kalshi 4.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hillary Clinton
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Andy Beshear
  • Rahm Emanuel

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?". Pete Buttigieg leads at 90.1%. Next is Andy Beshear at 86%. $1.0M has traded across 38 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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