The Prediction Markets

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$136K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Saudi Arabia 27.5%

Next is Meta at 5.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Saudi Arabia
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saudi Arabia
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
China
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
China
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceXAI / Elon Musk
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceXAI / Elon Musk
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iran
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iran
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
North Korea
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
North Korea
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Saudi Arabia
  • Meta
  • Russia

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?". Saudi Arabia leads at 27.5%. Next is Meta at 5.7%. $136K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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