The Prediction Markets

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Closes
Jan 20, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Gregory Katsas 38%

Next is James Ho at 38%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Gregory Katsas
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $136 (1.36x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gregory Katsas
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73.5¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$136 (1.36x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Polymarket
James Ho
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ho
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$964
Trade this on Polymarket
Ted Cruz
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 40.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $249 (2.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
40.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$249 (2.49x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Polymarket
Amul Thapar
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amul Thapar
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aileen Cannon
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $360 (3.60x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aileen Cannon
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27.8¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$360 (3.60x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Oldham
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Oldham
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Lee
7.3%
Polymarket 7.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Lee
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Steven Menashi
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Menashi
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Polymarket
Patrick Bumatay
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Bumatay
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Neomi Rao
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Neomi Rao
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Polymarket
John Sauer
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Sauer
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: senate.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gregory Katsas
  • James Ho
  • Ted Cruz

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?". Gregory Katsas leads at 38%. Next is James Ho at 38%. $7K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2029.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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