The Prediction Markets

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$419K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Autism 99%

Next is Predict / Prediction at 99%. The venues differ most on Vladimir Putin (Polymarket 1.3%, Kalshi 83%), a 82-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Autism
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Autism
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Predict / Prediction
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Predict / Prediction
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bongbong Marcos
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bongbong Marcos
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$634
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladimir PutinArb
62.6%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 81¢ nets 7910 bps before fees.

Mohammed bin SalmanArb
53.1%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 68¢ nets 6420 bps before fees.

Fat shot / Ozempic
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fat shot / Ozempic
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$648
Trade this on Kalshi
UFO / UAP
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
UFO / UAP
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$656
Trade this on Kalshi
Antifa
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antifa
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$956
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Thiel
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Thiel
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abelardo de la Espriella
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abelardo de la Espriella
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 28 more outcomes
Gavin Newsom
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Dome
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kim Jong UnArb
16%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 21¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

Peace in the Middle East
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dario Amodei
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dario Amodei
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Altman
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Epstein
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peptide
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peptide
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Clinton
7.8%
Kalshi 7.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Clinton
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lai Ching-te
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lai Ching-te
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jerome Powell
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Make Iran Great Again
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Make Iran Great Again
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie Taylor Greene
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pope Leo XIV
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Walz
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reza Pahlavi
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reza Pahlavi
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Benjamin Netanyahu
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Carney
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miguel Díaz-Canel
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$988
Trade this on Polymarket
Joseph Aoun
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joseph Aoun
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Burnham
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Burnham
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Polymarket
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Giorgia Meloni
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giorgia Meloni
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Keir Starmer
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keir Starmer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Javier Milei
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Milei
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xi Jinping
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Vladimir Putin on Polymarket at 1.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 81¢ (7910 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC News, Associated Press, Bloomberg
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Autism
  • Predict / Prediction
  • Bongbong Marcos

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Autism for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Trump meet with by October 31?". Autism leads at 99%. Next is Predict / Prediction at 99%. $419K has traded across 38 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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