The Prediction Markets

Who will Trump nominate as U.S. Ambassador to Greece?

Closes
Jan 20, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Gus Bilirakis 10.4%

Next is Nicole Malliotakis at 9.4%. The venues differ most on John Catsimatidis (Polymarket 0.5%, Kalshi 7%), a 6.6-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gus BilirakisArb
10.4%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gus Bilirakis
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gus Bilirakis
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Nicole MalliotakisArb
9.4%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicole Malliotakis
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nicole Malliotakis
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Josh HuckArb
9.1%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Huck
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Huck
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Dean SpanosArb
7.6%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dean Spanos
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dean Spanos
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

John Georges
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Georges
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
John Kiriakou
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Kiriakou
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Geoffrey Pyatt
4.5%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Geoffrey Pyatt
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Geoffrey Pyatt
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Debbie Matenopoulos
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Debbie Matenopoulos
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Psaros
3.8%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Psaros
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Psaros
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

John CatsimatidisArb
2.1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Catsimatidis
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Catsimatidis
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 520 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy John Catsimatidis on Polymarket at 0.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 6¢ (520 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 19, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 20, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Library of Congress, The White House
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 19, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 20, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gus Bilirakis
  • Nicole Malliotakis
  • Josh Huck

Live prices for Gus Bilirakis

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Trump nominate as U.S. Ambassador to Greece?". Gus Bilirakis leads at 10.4%. Next is Nicole Malliotakis at 9.4%. $18K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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