What are the odds of Michael Cohen in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

Michael Cohen is currently priced at 35% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Donald Brodie in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

Donald Brodie is currently priced at 17.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Stefan Brodie in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

Stefan Brodie is currently priced at 16.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of John Kiriakou in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

John Kiriakou is currently priced at 15% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Josh Wander in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

Josh Wander is currently priced at 15% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Nicole Daedone in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

Nicole Daedone is currently priced at 15% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Larry Householder in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

Larry Householder is currently priced at 14% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Leonard Glenn Francis in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

Leonard Glenn Francis is currently priced at 13% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Ryan Salame in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

Ryan Salame is currently priced at 13% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Rachel Cherwitz in Who will Trump pardon before 2027??

Rachel Cherwitz is currently priced at 11% in prediction markets.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Closes: Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded: $1.1M
Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated: just now

What the markets expect

Michael Cohen 35%

Next is Donald Brodie at 17.5%. The venues differ most on Bob Menendez (Polymarket 3.3%, Kalshi 8.5%), a 5.2-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket
Kalshi

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Kalshi

Best Yes price

Michael Cohen

35%

Not listed

35%

32¢ bid, 35¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

35¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $286 (2.86x)

Michael Cohen

35%

Kalshi 35%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)

Kalshi

Contract: Michael Cohen
Last price: 35%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 35¢
Sell Yes: 32¢
$100 on Yes pays: $286 (2.86x)
Volume: $21K

Trade this on Kalshi

Donald Brodie

17.5%

14¢ bid, 21¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

21¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $476 (4.76x)

Donald Brodie

17.5%

Polymarket 17.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)

Polymarket

Contract: Donald Brodie
Last price: 17.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 21¢
Sell Yes: 14¢
$100 on Yes pays: $476 (4.76x)
Volume: $18K

Trade this on Polymarket

Stefan Brodie

16.5%

13¢ bid, 20¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

20¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $500 (5.00x)

Stefan Brodie

16.5%

Polymarket 16.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)

Polymarket

Contract: Stefan Brodie
Last price: 16.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 20¢
Sell Yes: 13¢
$100 on Yes pays: $500 (5.00x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

John Kiriakou

15%

Not listed

15%

13¢ bid, 15¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

15¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $667 (6.67x)

John Kiriakou

15%

Kalshi 15%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Kalshi

Contract: John Kiriakou
Last price: 15%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 15¢
Sell Yes: 13¢
$100 on Yes pays: $667 (6.67x)
Volume: $31K

Trade this on Kalshi

Josh Wander

15%

Not listed

15%

8¢ bid, 16¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

16¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $625 (6.25x)

Josh Wander

15%

Kalshi 15%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)

Kalshi

Contract: Josh Wander
Last price: 15%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 16¢
Sell Yes: 8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $625 (6.25x)
Volume: $157

Trade this on Kalshi

Nicole Daedone

15%

Not listed

15%

11¢ bid, 15¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

15¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Nicole Daedone

15%

Kalshi 15%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Kalshi

Contract: Nicole Daedone
Last price: 15%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 15¢
Sell Yes: 11¢
$100 on Yes pays: $667 (6.67x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Kalshi

Larry Householder

14%

Not listed

14%

14¢ bid, 21¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

21¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $476 (4.76x)

Larry Householder

14%

Kalshi 14%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)

Kalshi

Contract: Larry Householder
Last price: 14%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 21¢
Sell Yes: 14¢
$100 on Yes pays: $476 (4.76x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Kalshi

Leonard Glenn Francis

13%

Not listed

13%

4¢ bid, 13¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

13¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $769 (7.69x)

Leonard Glenn Francis

13%

Kalshi 13%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)

Kalshi

Contract: Leonard Glenn Francis
Last price: 13%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 13¢
Sell Yes: 4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $769 (7.69x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Kalshi

Ryan Salame

13%

12¢ bid, 14¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

14¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Ryan Salame

13%

Polymarket 13%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Polymarket

Contract: Ryan Salame
Last price: 13%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 14¢
Sell Yes: 12¢
$100 on Yes pays: $714 (7.14x)
Volume: $34K

Trade this on Polymarket

Rachel Cherwitz

11%

Not listed

11%

7.8¢ bid, 15¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

15¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Rachel Cherwitz

11%

Kalshi 11%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Kalshi

Contract: Rachel Cherwitz
Last price: 11%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 15¢
Sell Yes: 7.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $667 (6.67x)
Volume: $7K

Trade this on Kalshi

Show 42 more outcomes

Tim Leissner

11%

Not listed

11%

5¢ bid, 14¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

14¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Tim Leissner

11%

Kalshi 11%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Kalshi

Contract: Tim Leissner
Last price: 11%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 14¢
Sell Yes: 5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $714 (7.14x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Kalshi

Keonne Rodriguez

10.7%

11.5%

9¢ bid, 14¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

8.3%

7.3¢ bid, 14¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

14¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Keonne Rodriguez

10.7%

Polymarket 11.5%polled, 31s agoKalshi 8.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Polymarket

Contract: Keonne Rodriguez
Last price: 11.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 14¢
Sell Yes: 9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $714 (7.14x)
Volume: $20K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Keonne Rodriguez
Last price: 8.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 14¢
Sell Yes: 7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $714 (7.14x)
Volume: $7K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Kimberly Guilfoyle

10%

Not listed

10%

6¢ bid, 14¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

14¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Kimberly Guilfoyle

10%

Kalshi 10%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Kalshi

Contract: Kimberly Guilfoyle
Last price: 10%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 14¢
Sell Yes: 6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $714 (7.14x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Robin Smith

10%

Not listed

10%

5.1¢ bid, 10¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

10¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Robin Smith

10%

Kalshi 10%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Robin Smith
Last price: 10%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 10¢
Sell Yes: 5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,000 (10.0x)
Volume: $495

Trade this on Kalshi

Matt Borges

9.9%

Not listed

9.9%

1.1¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

9.9¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

Matt Borges

9.9%

Kalshi 9.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

Kalshi

Contract: Matt Borges
Last price: 9.9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9.9¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,010 (10.1x)
Volume: $29

Trade this on Kalshi

Tal Alexander

9.9%

Not listed

9.9%

5¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

9.9¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

Tal Alexander

9.9%

Kalshi 9.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

Kalshi

Contract: Tal Alexander
Last price: 9.9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9.9¢
Sell Yes: 5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,010 (10.1x)
Volume: $19

Trade this on Kalshi

Jared Kushner

9.7%

Not listed

9.7%

2.8¢ bid, 9.7¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

9.7¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)

Jared Kushner

9.7%

Kalshi 9.7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)

Kalshi

Contract: Jared Kushner
Last price: 9.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9.7¢
Sell Yes: 2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,031 (10.3x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Kalshi

Braden John Karony

Not listed

1.1¢ bid, 9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

9¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Braden John Karony

Kalshi 9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Kalshi

Contract: Braden John Karony
Last price: 9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,111 (11.1x)
Volume: $359

Trade this on Kalshi

Sean Combs

Not listed

8.3¢ bid, 9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

9¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Sean Combs

Kalshi 9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Kalshi

Contract: Sean Combs
Last price: 9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9¢
Sell Yes: 8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,111 (11.1x)
Volume: $67K

Trade this on Kalshi

Torence Hatch

8.9%

Not listed

8.9%

4.2¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

8.9¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)

Torence Hatch

8.9%

Kalshi 8.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)

Kalshi

Contract: Torence Hatch
Last price: 8.9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8.9¢
Sell Yes: 4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,124 (11.2x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Kalshi

Kenneth Petty

8.7%

Not listed

8.7%

2.6¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

8.7¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)

Kenneth Petty

8.7%

Kalshi 8.7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)

Kalshi

Contract: Kenneth Petty
Last price: 8.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8.7¢
Sell Yes: 2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,149 (11.5x)
Volume: $10K

Trade this on Kalshi

Bill Hwang

Not listed

4¢ bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

8¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Bill Hwang

Kalshi 8%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Kalshi

Contract: Bill Hwang
Last price: 8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: 4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $7K

Trade this on Kalshi

Aimee Bock

7.5%

Not listed

7.5%

1.1¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

7.6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)

Aimee Bock

7.5%

Kalshi 7.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)

Kalshi

Contract: Aimee Bock
Last price: 7.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7.6¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,316 (13.2x)
Volume: $129

Trade this on Kalshi

Steve BannonArb

7.4%

7.9%

7.1¢ bid, 8.6¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

6.9%

6.4¢ bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

7¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Steve BannonArb

7.4%

Polymarket 7.9%polled, 31s agoKalshi 6.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Steve Bannon
Last price: 7.9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8.6¢
Sell Yes: 7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,163 (11.6x)
Volume: $13K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Steve Bannon
Last price: 6.9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: 6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $10K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Bob Menendez

7.2%

3.3%

1.4¢ bid, 5.2¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

8.5%

1.3¢ bid, 8.5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

5.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)

Bob Menendez

7.2%

Polymarket 3.3%polled, 31s agoKalshi 8.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Bob Menendez
Last price: 3.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5.2¢
Sell Yes: 1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,923 (19.2x)
Volume: $295

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Bob Menendez
Last price: 8.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8.5¢
Sell Yes: 1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,176 (11.8x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.2¢.

Jho Low

Not listed

7¢ bid, 15¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

15¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Jho Low

Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Kalshi

Contract: Jho Low
Last price: 7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 15¢
Sell Yes: 7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $667 (6.67x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Kalshi

Matt Gaetz

6¢ bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Matt Gaetz

Polymarket 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Matt Gaetz
Last price: 7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: 6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

Roger Ver

6.3%

5.4%

5.2¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

3.3¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

5.5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)

Roger Ver

6.3%

Polymarket 5.4%polled, 31s agoKalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Roger Ver
Last price: 5.4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5.5¢
Sell Yes: 5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,818 (18.2x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Roger Ver
Last price: 7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7.4¢
Sell Yes: 3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,351 (13.5x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.4¢.

Joseph Maldonado

Not listed

6¢ bid, 10¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

10¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Joseph Maldonado

Kalshi 6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Joseph Maldonado
Last price: 6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 10¢
Sell Yes: 6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,000 (10.0x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Martin Shkreli

2.1¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

8.5%

2.5¢ bid, 8.5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

5.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)

Martin Shkreli

Polymarket 4%polled, 31s agoKalshi 8.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: Martin Shkreli
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5.9¢
Sell Yes: 2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,695 (16.9x)
Volume: $32K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Martin Shkreli
Last price: 8.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8.5¢
Sell Yes: 2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,176 (11.8x)
Volume: $25K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.9¢.

Elizabeth HolmesArb

5.9%

5.5%

5.3¢ bid, 5.7¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

6.1%

6.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

5.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)

Elizabeth HolmesArb

5.9%

Polymarket 5.5%polled, 31s agoKalshi 6.1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Elizabeth Holmes
Last price: 5.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5.7¢
Sell Yes: 5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,754 (17.5x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Elizabeth Holmes
Last price: 6.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9.2¢
Sell Yes: 6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,087 (10.9x)
Volume: $15K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6.1¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Edward Snowden

4.6%

3.7%

3.4¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

3¢ bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

3.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)

Edward Snowden

4.6%

Polymarket 3.7%polled, 31s agoKalshi 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Edward Snowden
Last price: 3.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.9¢
Sell Yes: 3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,564 (25.6x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Edward Snowden
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: 3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $9K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.9¢.

Diddy

4.6%

4.2¢ bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Diddy

4.6%

Polymarket 4.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Diddy
Last price: 4.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: 4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $34K

Trade this on Polymarket

Joe Exotic

4.5%

4¢ bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Joe Exotic

4.5%

Polymarket 4.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Joe Exotic
Last price: 4.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: 4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Polymarket

Julian Assange

4.4%

3.7%

3.3¢ bid, 4¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

3¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Julian Assange

4.4%

Polymarket 3.7%polled, 31s agoKalshi 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Julian Assange
Last price: 3.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: 3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Julian Assange
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6.5¢
Sell Yes: 3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,538 (15.4x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Ghislaine Maxwell

4.3%

4.4%

3.8¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

4.3%

4.2¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

4.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)

Ghislaine Maxwell

4.3%

Polymarket 4.4%polled, 31s agoKalshi 4.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)

Polymarket

Contract: Ghislaine Maxwell
Last price: 4.4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4.9¢
Sell Yes: 3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,041 (20.4x)
Volume: $29K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Ghislaine Maxwell
Last price: 4.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6.9¢
Sell Yes: 4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,449 (14.5x)
Volume: $81K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.9¢.

Sam Bankman-FriedArb

3.9%

3.3%

2.8¢ bid, 3.8¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

4¢ bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

3.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)

Sam Bankman-FriedArb

3.9%

Polymarket 3.3%polled, 31s agoKalshi 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Sam Bankman-Fried
Last price: 3.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.8¢
Sell Yes: 2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,632 (26.3x)
Volume: $145K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Sam Bankman-Fried
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: 4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $76K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Daniel Penny

3.9%

1.7¢ bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Daniel Penny

3.9%

Polymarket 3.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Daniel Penny
Last price: 3.9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: 1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Roger Stone

3.6%

2.9¢ bid, 4.2¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

4.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)

Roger Stone

3.6%

Polymarket 3.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Roger Stone
Last price: 3.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4.2¢
Sell Yes: 2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,381 (23.8x)
Volume: $12K

Trade this on Polymarket

Nicolas Maduro

3.4%

2.8¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

3.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)

Nicolas Maduro

3.4%

Polymarket 3.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Nicolas Maduro
Last price: 3.4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.9¢
Sell Yes: 2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,564 (25.6x)
Volume: $11K

Trade this on Polymarket

Young Thug

3.2%

1.4¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

4.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)

Young Thug

3.2%

Polymarket 3.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)

Polymarket

Contract: Young Thug
Last price: 3.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4.9¢
Sell Yes: 1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,041 (20.4x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Polymarket

Himself

3.1%

2.3¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

3.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)

Himself

3.1%

Polymarket 3.1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Himself
Last price: 3.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.9¢
Sell Yes: 2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,564 (25.6x)
Volume: $24K

Trade this on Polymarket

Antoine Massey

1.5¢ bid, 4.5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

4.5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)

Antoine Massey

Polymarket 3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Antoine Massey
Last price: 3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4.5¢
Sell Yes: 1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,222 (22.2x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Nicolas Maduro

Kalshi: “Nicolás Maduro”

Not listed

3¢ bid, 4¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

4¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Nicolas Maduro

Kalshi 3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Nicolás Maduro
Last price: 3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: 3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)
Volume: $19K

Trade this on Kalshi

Do Kwon

2.8%

2.5¢ bid, 3¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

Do Kwon

2.8%

Polymarket 2.8%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Do Kwon
Last price: 2.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3¢
Sell Yes: 2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,333 (33.3x)
Volume: $24K

Trade this on Polymarket

Elon Musk

2.7%

2¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

3.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)

Elon Musk

2.7%

Polymarket 2.7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Elon Musk
Last price: 2.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.3¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,030 (30.3x)
Volume: $53K

Trade this on Polymarket

Andrew Tate

2.6%

1.2¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

3.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)

Andrew Tate

2.6%

Polymarket 2.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Andrew Tate
Last price: 2.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.9¢
Sell Yes: 1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,564 (25.6x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Donald Trump

2.3%

Not listed

2.3%

2.3¢ bid, 6.1¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

6.1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)

Donald Trump

2.3%

Kalshi 2.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)

Kalshi

Contract: Donald Trump
Last price: 2.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6.1¢
Sell Yes: 2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,639 (16.4x)
Volume: $19K

Trade this on Kalshi

Hunter Biden

2.3%

0.9¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

Not listed

3.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)

Hunter Biden

2.3%

Polymarket 2.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Hunter Biden
Last price: 2.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,778 (27.8x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Polymarket

Charlie Javice

Not listed

2¢ bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Charlie Javice

Kalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Charlie Javice
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $11K

Trade this on Kalshi

Eric Adams

2.2%

1.1¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

1.9%

1.5¢ bid, 7.3¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

3.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)

Eric Adams

Polymarket 2.2%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1.9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Eric Adams
Last price: 2.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.2¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,125 (31.3x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Eric Adams
Last price: 1.9%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7.3¢
Sell Yes: 1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,370 (13.7x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.2¢.

Derek Chauvin

1.9%

2.2¢ bid, 3.8¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

1.5%

1.5¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask

polled, 31s ago

3.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)

Derek Chauvin

1.9%

Polymarket 3%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Derek Chauvin
Last price: 3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.8¢
Sell Yes: 2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,632 (26.3x)
Volume: $28K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Derek Chauvin
Last price: 1.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5.5¢
Sell Yes: 1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,818 (18.2x)
Volume: $93K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.8¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Elizabeth Holmes on Polymarket at 5.7¢, sell on Kalshi at 6.1¢ (40 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi resolves via:: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, New York Times

Show full rule comparison

Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

Michael Cohen
Donald Brodie
Stefan Brodie

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Michael Cohen for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?". Michael Cohen leads at 35%. Next is Donald Brodie at 17.5%. $1.1M has traded across 52 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all politics markets

What the markets expect

Odds by venue

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

How the odds have moved

Order books

Polymarket

Kalshi

Top of book

Depth · top 8 levels

Recent trades

What your stake buys

About this market

Questions

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