The Prediction Markets

Who will visit Mar-a-Lago before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$68K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Jensen Huang 28%

Next is Jeff Bezos at 27%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Jensen Huang
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jensen Huang
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeff Bezos
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeff Bezos
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ron DeSantis
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Benjamin Netanyahu
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Giorgia Meloni
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giorgia Meloni
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$671
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Zuckerberg
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Zuckerberg
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Fishback
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Fishback
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladimir Putin
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Xi Jinping
8.7%
Kalshi 8.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie Taylor Greene
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, Politico

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jensen Huang
  • Jeff Bezos
  • Ron DeSantis

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will visit Mar-a-Lago before 2027?". Jensen Huang leads at 28%. Next is Jeff Bezos at 27%. $68K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets