The Prediction Markets

Who will visit the White House before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$162K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Mark Carney 42%

Next is Hakeem Jeffries at 37%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Mark Carney
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hakeem Jeffries
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Claudia Sheinbaum
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Claudia Sheinbaum
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Ternus
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Ternus
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaxson Dart
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Kalshi
Abelardo de la Espriella
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abelardo de la Espriella
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Anutin Charnvirakul
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anutin Charnvirakul
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abiy Ahmed
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abiy Ahmed
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Pope Leo XIV
8.7%
Kalshi 8.7%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cristiano Ronaldo
8.1%
Kalshi 8.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cristiano Ronaldo
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lionel Messi
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladimir Putin
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Eric Adams
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Adams
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reza Pahlavi
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reza Pahlavi
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jerome Powell
3.9%
Kalshi 3.9%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$964
Trade this on Kalshi
Bola Ahmed Tinubu
3.6%
Kalshi 3.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Obama
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Biden
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Biden
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hun Manet
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hun Manet
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie Taylor Greene
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox News, White House, Office of the Presidency

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mark Carney
  • Hakeem Jeffries
  • Abdel Fattah al-Sisi

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will visit the White House before 2027?". Mark Carney leads at 42%. Next is Hakeem Jeffries at 37%. $162K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets