The Prediction Markets

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Starts in 161 daysKickoff
Traded
$156.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Marine Le Pen 46.6%

Next is Edouard Philippe at 16.9%. The venues differ most on Marine Le Pen (Polymarket 46.3%, Kalshi 52%), a 5.8-point gap.

Marine Le Pen 46.6%Edouard Philippe 16.9%David Lisnard 12.6%Jean-Luc Melenchon 9.8%Raphael Glucksmann 4.2%33 others 9.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 75 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marine Le PenArb
46.6%
Polymarket 46.3%(45.5% fair)live, just nowKalshi 52%(49.7% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 46.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $216 (2.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Price
46.3%
Fair, margin removed
45.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
46.3¢
Sell Yes
46.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$216 (2.16x)
Volume
$4.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Price
52%
Fair, margin removed
49.7%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$271K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 46.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 52¢ nets 570 bps before fees.

Edouard PhilippeArb
16.9%
Polymarket 18%polled, 19s agoKalshi 15%(14.4% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
14.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 16¢ and selling on Polymarket at 17¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

David LisnardArb
12.6%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 11%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
13.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$5.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 11¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13.5¢ nets 250 bps before fees.

Jean-Luc MelenchonArb
9.8%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 8.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8.4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 160 bps before fees.

Raphael GlucksmannArb
4.2%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4.4¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Francois HollandeArb
2.1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$78K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 230 bps before fees.

Christine LagardeArb
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 130 bps before fees.

Gabriel Attal
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jordan BardellaArb
0.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1.4¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Sarah Knafo
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.8¢.

Show 36 more outcomes
Bruno RetailleauArb
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.8¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Eric ZemmourArb
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 0.5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 0.6¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Dominique de Villepin
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.6¢.

Sebastien Lecornu
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.4¢.

Bernard Cazeneuve
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Carole Delga
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carole Delga
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carole Delga
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Elisabeth Borne
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
lisabeth Borne
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
lisabeth Borne
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Francois Bayrou
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Bayrou
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Bayrou
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Francois Ruffin
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Gerald Darmanin
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Jean Castex
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean Castex
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean Castex
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Laurent Wauquiez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laurent Wauquiez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Laurent Wauquiez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Manuel Bompard
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Bompard
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Manuel Bompard
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Mathilde Panot
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mathilde Panot
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mathilde Panot
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Michel Barnier
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michel Barnier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michel Barnier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Olivier Faure
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Valerie Pecresse
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valérie Pécresse
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Valérie Pécresse
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Xavier Bertrand
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Yael Braun-Pivet
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaël Braun-Pivet
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yaël Braun-Pivet
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Anasse Kazib
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anasse Kazib
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Le Maire
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Le Maire
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Clémence Guetté
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémence Guetté
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Clémentine Autain
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémentine Autain
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
François Asselineau
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Karim Bouamrane
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karim Bouamrane
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Tondelier
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Natacha Polony
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natacha Polony
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$82K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ségolène Royal
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ségolène Royal
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabien Roussel
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
François Baroin
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Baroin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Branco
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Branco
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Lucie Castets
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lucie Castets
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$424K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marion Maréchal
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marion Maréchal
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$873K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Sylvain Durif
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sylvain Durif
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yannick Jadot
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yannick Jadot
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$750K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Marine Le Pen on Polymarket at 46.3¢, sell on Kalshi at 52¢ (570 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and May 30, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: interieur.gouv.fr
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the government of France
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Apr 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and May 30, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marine Le Pen
  • Edouard Philippe
  • David Lisnard

Live prices for Marine Le Pen

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?". Marine Le Pen leads at 46.6%. Next is Edouard Philippe at 16.9%. $156.5M has traded across 46 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 30, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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