The Prediction Markets

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?

Starts in 366 daysKickoff
Traded
$1.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Javier Milei 44.5%

Next is Axel Kicillof at 28.6%. The venues differ most on Javier Milei (Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 51%), a 3.5-point gap.

Javier Milei 44.5%Axel Kicillof 28.6%Sergio Massa 11%Patricia Bullrich 3.9%Eduardo de Pedro 2.5%17 others 9.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Javier MileiArb
44.5%
Polymarket 47.5%(44% fair)polled, 47s agoKalshi 51%(45.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Milei
Last price
47.5%
Fair, margin removed
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$270K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Milei
Last price
51%
Fair, margin removed
45.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 48¢ and selling on Kalshi at 50¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Axel KicillofArb
28.6%
Polymarket 31.5%(29.2% fair)polled, 47s agoKalshi 30%(26.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Axel Kicillof
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$144K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Axel Kicillof
Last price
30%
Fair, margin removed
26.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 30¢ and selling on Polymarket at 31¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Sergio Massa
11%
Polymarket 11.6%(10.7% fair)polled, 47s agoKalshi 13%(11.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Massa
Last price
11.6%
Fair, margin removed
10.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.3¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$752 (7.52x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sergio Massa
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13.3¢.

Patricia Bullrich
3.9%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 47s agoKalshi 3.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patricia Bullrich
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patricia Bullrich
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.1¢.

Eduardo de Pedro
2.5%
Kalshi 2.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eduardo de Pedro
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
2.5%
Kalshi 2.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Myriam Bregman
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Myriam Bregman
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dante Gebel
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dante Gebel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Hadad
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Hadad
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 13 more outcomes
Mauricio MacriArb
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 47s agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mauricio Macri
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mauricio Macri
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Karina Milei
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karina Milei
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lionel Messi
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Victoria Villarruel
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Victoria Villarruel
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guillermo Moreno
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guillermo Moreno
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alberto Fernández
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alberto Fernández
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$336
Trade this on Polymarket
Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Esteban Bullrich
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Esteban Bullrich
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Facundo Manes
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Facundo Manes
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Grabois
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Grabois
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Schiaretti
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Schiaretti
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Máximo Kirchner
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Máximo Kirchner
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás del Caño
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolás del Caño
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Javier Milei on Polymarket at 48¢, sell on Kalshi at 50¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 24, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: electoral.gob.ar
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Electoral Chamber
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 24, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Javier Milei
  • Axel Kicillof
  • Sergio Massa

Live prices for Javier Milei

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?". Javier Milei leads at 44.5%. Next is Axel Kicillof at 28.6%. $1.1M has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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