The Prediction Markets

Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Adama Barrow 64.6%

Next is Ousainou Darboe at 19.7%. The venues differ most on Mama Kandeh (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 4.9%), a 4.8-point gap.

Adama Barrow 64.6%Ousainou Darboe 19.7%Talib Ahmed Bensouda 7.7%Essa Faal 2.4%Bakary K. Badjie 2.3%3 others 3.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Adama Barrow
64.6%
Polymarket 64.5%(63.2% fair)polled, 36s agoKalshi 66%(61.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adama Barrow
Last price
64.5%
Fair, margin removed
63.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adama Barrow
Last price
66%
Fair, margin removed
61.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 66¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 66¢.

Ousainou Darboe
19.7%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 36s agoKalshi 19%(17.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ousainou Darboe
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ousainou Darboe
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
17.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Talib Ahmed Bensouda
7.7%
Kalshi 8%(7.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Talib Bensouda
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi
Essa Faal
2.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 36s agoKalshi 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Essa Faal
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$449
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Essa Faal
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.9¢.

Bakary K. Badjie
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bakary K. Badjie
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Polymarket
Talib Ahmed Bensouda
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talib Ahmed Bensouda
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
Mama Kandeh
1.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoKalshi 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mama Kandeh
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$934
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mama Kandeh
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Mohamed Al Amin Bah
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohamed Al Amin Bah
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 5, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: iec.gm
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Independent Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Dec 5, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Adama Barrow
  • Ousainou Darboe
  • Talib Ahmed Bensouda

Live prices for Adama Barrow

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?". Adama Barrow leads at 64.6%. Next is Ousainou Darboe at 19.7%. $29K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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