The Prediction Markets

Who will win the next Ghanaian presidential election?

Closes
Dec 31, 2029, in 39 months
Traded
$12K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Asiedu Nketia 41.8%

Next is Mahamudu Bawumia at 32.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Asiedu Nketia 41.8%Mahamudu Bawumia 32.9%Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang 11.8%Cassiel Ato Forson 6.3%Alan Kyerematen 5.8%Haruna Iddrisu 1.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Asiedu Nketia
41.8%
Kalshi 33%(41.8% fair)polled, 17s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Asiedu Nketia
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
41.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mahamudu Bawumia
32.9%
Kalshi 26%(32.9% fair)polled, 17s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mahamudu Bawumia
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
32.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang
11.8%
Kalshi 9.3%(11.8% fair)polled, 17s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang
Last price
9.3%
Fair, margin removed
11.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cassiel Ato Forson
6.3%
Kalshi 5%(6.3% fair)polled, 17s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cassiel Ato Forson
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Kalshi
Alan Kyerematen
5.8%
Kalshi 4.6%(5.8% fair)polled, 17s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alan Kyerematen
Last price
4.6%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Haruna Iddrisu
1.4%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haruna Iddrisu
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Electoral Commission of Ghana

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Asiedu Nketia
  • Mahamudu Bawumia
  • Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Ghanaian presidential election?". Asiedu Nketia leads at 41.8%. Next is Mahamudu Bawumia at 32.9%. $12K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets