The Prediction Markets

Who will win the next Lebanese general election?

Closes
May 11, 2028, in 19 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Election Postponed Beyond Expiration 58%

Next is Lebanese Forces at 13.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Election Postponed Beyond Expiration 58%Lebanese Forces 13.9%Amal Movement 6.3%Kataeb 3.8%Marada Movement 3.8%5 others 14.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Election Postponed Beyond Expiration
58%
Kalshi 67%(58% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Election Postponed Beyond Expiration
Last price
67%
Fair, margin removed
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lebanese Forces
13.9%
Kalshi 16%(13.9% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lebanese Forces
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
13.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amal Movement
6.3%
Kalshi 7.3%(6.3% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amal Movement
Last price
7.3%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kataeb
3.8%
Kalshi 4.4%(3.8% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kataeb
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Marada Movement
3.8%
Kalshi 4.4%(3.8% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marada Movement
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
PSP
3.8%
Kalshi 4.4%(3.8% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
PSP
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Tashnag
3.8%
Kalshi 4.4%(3.8% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tashnag
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Independence Movement
3.5%
Kalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Independence Movement
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
FPM
2.2%
Kalshi 2.6%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
FPM
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Kalshi
Hezbollah
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hezbollah
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ministry of Interior and Municipalities

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Election Postponed Beyond Expiration
  • Lebanese Forces
  • Amal Movement

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Lebanese general election?". Election Postponed Beyond Expiration leads at 58%. Next is Lebanese Forces at 13.9%. $29K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 11, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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