The Prediction Markets

Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?

Closes
Oct 31, 2029, in 37 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Alexandr Stoianoglo 23.6%

Next is Dorin Recean at 14.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Alexandr Stoianoglo 23.6%Dorin Recean 14.9%Igor Dodon 14.9%Igor Grosu 14.9%Renato Usatîi 11.1%4 others 20.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Alexandr Stoianoglo
23.6%
Kalshi 19%(23.6% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandr Stoianoglo
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
23.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dorin Recean
14.9%
Kalshi 12%(14.9% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dorin Recean
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
14.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Igor Dodon
14.9%
Kalshi 12%(14.9% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Igor Dodon
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
14.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Igor Grosu
14.9%
Kalshi 12%(14.9% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Igor Grosu
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
14.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Renato Usatîi
11.1%
Kalshi 9%(11.2% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Renato Usatîi
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
11.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Natalia Gavrilița
7.7%
Kalshi 6.2%(7.7% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Natalia Gavrilița
Last price
6.2%
Fair, margin removed
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Kalshi
Ion Ceban
6.2%
Kalshi 5%(6.2% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ion Ceban
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Kalshi
Vasile Costiuc
5.6%
Kalshi 4.5%(5.6% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasile Costiuc
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Evghenia Gutul
1.1%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Evghenia Gutul
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alexandr Stoianoglo
  • Dorin Recean
  • Igor Dodon

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?". Alexandr Stoianoglo leads at 23.6%. Next is Dorin Recean at 14.9%. $10K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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